Bitcoin is coiling around the psychologically loaded $110K mark after a brisk correction—momentum is muted, volatility is tightening, and traders are asking the right question: is this the quiet before Bitcoin’s next decisive move? Price has slipped beneath a prior ascending channel, found footing near the 100-day MA, and now sits with daily RSI ~44 and 4H RSI ~49—a textbook setup for a breakout or breakdown once liquidity tips the balance.

What’s happening on the charts

On the daily chart, BTC defended the $110K region that aligns closely with the 100-day moving average. Upside caps are defined at $116K and the $124K record high. Lose $110K, and the door reopens to the $104K demand zone that previously anchored strong bounces.

On the 4H, Bitcoin broke a steep descending channel and is now climbing a smaller rising channel. Price is retesting the $110K–$111K pivot; a clean drop below $109K would invalidate the short-term bullish structure and likely target the $104K area.

Why it matters now

Exchange reserves are sinking to multi‑year lows, signaling persistent outflows to cold storage—classic long-term accumulation. That tightens available supply and strengthens the supply shock narrative. In practice, it means shallow sell-side liquidity can fuel outsized moves once demand returns. But with momentum flat, fakeouts around key levels are common—patience and confirmation matter.

Actionable levels and plan

Treat $110K–$111K as your short-term compass and let price confirm.

• Bounce/Continuation: Look for a 4H close and hold above $111K or a clean defense of $110K. Potential targets: $114K, then $116K; stretch target toward $124K if momentum expands. Invalidation: sustained move back below $109K.
• Breakdown: A decisive 4H close below $109K opens room to $104K. Invalidation: rapid reclaim of $110K on closing basis.
• Stops & sizing: Keep risk tight around invalidation ($109K for longs, reclaimed $110K for shorts). Size positions so a single loss is tolerable.

On-chain context to watch

The steady decline in exchange reserves supports dip-buying and reduces sell pressure during corrections. If reserves keep falling while price holds above $110K, the probability of a bullish reversal increases. A flattening or uptick in reserves alongside a loss of $109K would warn of a deeper retrace toward $104K.

Risk controls for this setup

• Wait for 4H closes to confirm breaks—avoid chasing wicks.
• Don’t short the first clean touch of the $104K demand without reversal signals.
• Scale out into $114K–$116K if long; let runners attempt $124K.
• Avoid high leverage in a low-momentum chop regime.

Bottom line

The battleground is $110K–$111K. Hold it, and bulls can press toward $114K–$116K with a shot at $124K; lose it, and the path of least resistance is $104K. The single most actionable takeaway: trade the level, not the bias—long above confirmed $111K with a tight $109K invalidation, or step aside/short on a confirmed break below $109K targeting $104K.

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