Bitcoin just snapped back from the channel bottom near $107K and is now pressing into the sticky $110K–$112K band that has capped price for days. Momentum still tilts bearish on higher timeframes, but a clean reclaim of that ceiling could flip the script toward $115K–$118K. The next few 4H closes are likely to decide whether we get a relief breakout or a fresh leg down toward $105K and potentially the psychological $100K area.

What’s happening now

Bitcoin trades around $108.7K inside a descending channel, with buyers stepping in at $106K–$107K and sellers defending $110K–$112K (and higher-timeframe rejections at $112K–$114K). The RSI (~38) remains below 50 and the MACD sits beneath its signal line, indicating sellers maintain the upper hand unless a bullish crossover and RSI reclaim occur.

Why this matters to traders

A decisive move through $112K would mark a break of structure and open a path to $115K–$118K, creating short-cover fuel. Failure here likely extends the channel, keeping top-side fades attractive and exposing a sweep of $105K–$106K. In short: we’re at an inflection where execution discipline can make the difference between catching the move or getting trapped in a fakeout.

Key levels to watch

• Support: $106K–$107K; below that, $105K and the psychological $100K.
• Resistance: $110.5K–$112K (channel top); higher cap at $112K–$114K.
• Breakout targets: $115K–$116K first, then $117K–$118K if momentum holds.
• Momentum triggers: RSI reclaim of 50 and a 4H MACD bullish cross.

Actionable setups

• Breakout-retest long: Wait for a 4H close above $111.4K–$112K with rising volume, then look for a retest hold to target $115K–$116K. Invalidation: sustained push back below $110.5K.
• Range fade short: If price stalls at $110.5K–$112K and momentum stays weak (RSI < 50, MACD below signal), consider a tight-risk fade toward $107K. Invalidation: 4H close above $112K.
• Support sweep bounce: A liquidity dip into $106K–$107K that quickly reclaims $108K can offer a mean-reversion long. Invalidation: clean breakdown below $106K.
• Momentum add-on: If RSI reclaims 50 and MACD flips positive on 4H, consider adding on confirmed higher low above $110K.

Risk management and invalidation

Keep risk per trade modest and define invalidations clearly:

• For breakout longs: Loss of $110.5K or a return back inside the channel after breakout is a warning.
• For range shorts: A strong 4H close above $112K with volume is a clear exit signal.
• Event risk: Watch macro prints and liquidity gaps; thin weekend books can exaggerate moves.

Bottom line

Bias remains bearish while RSI is sub-50 and MACD lags, but a decisive push and hold above $110.5K–$112K would shift momentum toward $115K–$118K. Until then, treat the range with respect: trade the edges, wait for confirmation, and let invalidations keep you safe.

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