Traders bracing for the classic September slump might be looking at the wrong playbook this year. After Bitcoin’s first red month since April, fear is rising—but the setup beneath the surface looks more nuanced: a well-defined support base near $105k–$110k, a hidden bullish divergence on momentum, and a softer U.S. dollar that could fuel risk appetite. Here’s the context you need—and the triggers that matter—before the month begins.

What’s happening now

Bitcoin historically struggles in September, closing red in 8 of the last 12 years with average returns around -3.8%. That’s the famed September Effect—profit-taking after summer and positioning for Q4.

This year, however, several signals challenge the default bearish bias: - Price is consolidating above the $105k–$110k zone, which flipped from resistance to support—a constructive structure. - Momentum shows a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI: price pulled back, but RSI didn’t make a comparable low, hinting at underlying accumulation. - The 52-week correlation between BTC and the DXY has weakened to roughly -0.25. A falling dollar can be a tailwind for BTC, especially if Fed cut expectations rise. - Analysts comparing today’s path with 2017 note a late-August shakeout followed by recovery; others see room to retest or exceed the prior ATH near $124.5k within 4–6 weeks if support holds.

Why this matters to traders

If the seasonal pattern fails after a bruising August, the pain trade flips: late bears can get squeezed as price pivots from base to breakout. Meanwhile, a weaker dollar loosens financial conditions, often supporting risk assets. With correlation to DXY already negative, BTC can climb even if broader markets wobble—creating windows for high-conviction trend trades and disciplined swing setups.

Key levels and signals to watch

• $105k–$110k support: The market’s line in the sand. Holds favor upside continuation; clean weekly closes below would warn of a deeper corrective leg.
• Prior ATH / $124.5k: Reclaim and hold above converts resistance into trend acceleration territory.
• RSI structure: Hidden bullish divergence remains intact while momentum baselines hold above prior troughs.
• DXY trajectory: Continued dollar softness strengthens the crypto bull case; watch for correlation staying negative or turning more negative.

Scenario planning for September

• Base-hold, breakout: Buyers defend $105k–$110k, momentum improves, and price grinds toward ATH. Expect rotational flows into high-liquidity alts if BTC strength persists.
• Range and fakeouts: Whipsaws around the base are common; fade extremes with tight invalidation, not the midpoint churn.
• Base failure: A decisive weekly close below the base opens room to revisit lower supports. De-risk and wait for structure to rebuild.

One actionable takeaway

Build your September plan around the base. Define your reaction, not prediction:

• Set alerts at $110k (retests) and near the ATH zone (breakout confirmation). Trade the reaction: hold → scale in; fail → step aside.
• Use weekly closes for confirmation to filter intraday noise; align position sizing with volatility.
• Map invalidation clearly beneath the base to cap downside. No invalidation, no trade.
• Track DXY and Fed cut odds as macro tailwinds; if dollar bounces, tighten risk until momentum reasserts.

Risks you can’t ignore

Macro surprises (Fed guidance shifts, growth shocks), liquidity air pockets, and changing correlations can invalidate patterns fast. Hidden divergences can fail; support can break on news. Stay flexible, size responsibly, and avoid extrapolating short-term moves into long-term certainty.

Bottom line

Seasonality says “be careful,” but market structure says “be prepared.” If $105k–$110k holds and the dollar weakens further, a measured push toward the ATH is on the table in the coming weeks. Trade the levels, respect invalidation, and let the market prove the thesis before you size up.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.