Bitcoin is coiling between two magnets — a potential liquidity sweep toward $105k and a breakout attempt into $118k — while institutions buy dips and short-term signals conflict. With August’s -11.4% average BTC drawdown looming over sentiment, traders face a classic trap: chase strength into resistance or fade weakness into historical seasonality. The edge goes to those who map the levels and trade the reaction, not the prediction.

What’s happening

Japan’s Metaplanet added 463 BTC (~$53.7M) at an average $115,895, echoing MicroStrategy-style accumulation, but price remains capped below $115k. A 12-hour TD Sequential buy signal and a re-entry into a potential bull flag compete with macro risk-off tone and thinning summer liquidity. Market chatter centers on a downside test of $105k against overhead supply at $115k–$118k.

Why it matters

This is a classic “volatility compression near resistance” setup. Rejections at $115k can force deleveraging and altcoin underperformance; a clean reclaim opens momentum flows and rotation. For active traders, the next $10k swing likely sets the tone for September risk appetite.

Key levels to watch

• $105k: Major spot demand/stop cluster. A wick below then fast reclaim is a high-probability bounce pattern.
• $115k: First gate. Repeated failure invites lower-highs and range mean reversion.
• $118k: “Decision level.” Acceptance above turns prior supply into support and validates breakout attempts.
• $112k–$113k: Intraday pivot; losing it often accelerates moves back to the range lows.

Actionable trade frameworks

• Range-fade plan: Look for seller exhaustion into $105k with a swift reclaim of intraday support; enter on confirmation, invalidation below the sweep low, target $112k → $115k.
• Breakout-retest plan: Wait for daily close above $115k and a hold on retest; add through $118k acceptance, invalidate on loss of $115k.
• Risk controls: Predefine max loss per trade, keep position sizes modest into weekend liquidity gaps, use stop orders not mental stops.
• Execution: Set alerts at $105k, $115k, $118k; watch funding/OI for crowded sides before entering.

Risks and confirmations

• Seasonality: August weakness can persist; avoid averaging down blindly into sliding support.
• Leverage: Elevated funding and rising OI near resistance raise squeeze risk both ways.
• Institutional flow: Additional corporate buys help floor price but rarely negate short-term technicals.
• Signal quality: The TD buy on 12h improves odds of a bounce, but invalidates if price can’t hold recaptured levels within 1–2 candles.

Bottom line

Expect noise within $105k–$118k; the path of maximum pain could be a $105k liquidity sweep before any sustained push. Trade the confirmation, not the headline, and let levels — not emotions — guide your risk.

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