Bitcoin is coiling between $107,000 and $117,000 while the S&P 500 prints fresh highs—a setup that has historically preceded Bitcoin’s strongest upside bursts. On-chain data shows smart money accumulating, ETF demand is back (but not roaring), and the Fed just cut rates—tilting macro winds in risk-on’s favor. The spring looks wound. The question is whether flows hit escape velocity.

What’s happening

Glassnode and market analysts point to three converging signals: - Bitcoin is consolidating in a tight range as the S&P 500 makes sequential ATHs—mirroring 2024’s lag-then-surge pattern where BTC rallied ~70% in two months. - Accumulation addresses climbed to ~762,000 after the Oct. 10 flush (from ~754,000), indicating long-term buyers stepped in as price dropped from ~$120,000 to ~$107,000. - US spot BTC ETF netflows turned positive near the bounce from $107,000, but remain sub-1,000 BTC/day—well below the ~2,500 BTC/day seen at the start of past big legs.

Structurally, Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution marks support near $111,000 and heavy supply around $117,000. The Fed’s latest 25 bps cut to a 3.75%–4.00% target range adds a macro catalyst for volatility.

Why it matters to traders

- Sideways price while equities rise often compresses BTC volatility—setting up outsized moves when liquidity tips. - Rising accumulation during drawdowns reflects conviction from longer-term holders, improving downside resilience. - Positive but muted ETF demand suggests the market may need a flow inflection before a sustained breakout, reducing the odds of immediate trend extension but increasing the odds of a forceful move once flows accelerate.

Key levels and signals to watch

• $107,000: Recent downside pivot. Lose it decisively and the range thesis weakens.
• $109,000–$110,000: Midrange/CME gap test zone highlighted by analysts.
• $111,000: On-chain support cluster (cost basis). Reclaims/holds favor longs.
• $117,000: Heaviest near-term supply. Clean break and hold turns momentum up.
• $120,000+: Post-breakout continuation area; watch for trend confirmation.
• ETF netflows: A move >1,000 BTC/day signals improving demand; >2,500 BTC/day aligns with prior major rallies.
• Derivatives: Funding and OI spikes into resistance raise fakeout risk; a reset plus spot-led bid improves breakout quality.

Two trade scenarios (as outlined by analysts)

• Pre-event push, post-event fade: BTC squeezes up, leaves a CME gap below, then reverses to retest $109,000–$110,000. Tactically, fade into resistance with tight invalidation above $117,000, target midrange; then watch for long setups on $111,000 hold.
• Gap fill first, then drive higher: Price wicks down to fill the gap/test midrange before a reversal higher after the event, unlocking a run at $117,000–$120,000. Tactically, look for reclaim of $111,000 on strong spot volume to enter, invalidate below the session low.

Actionable takeaway

Trade the range with asymmetric risk, but require confirmation from spot-led flows. A daily close and acceptance above $117,000 with ETF netflows trending >1,000 BTC/day materially boosts the probability of trend continuation; conversely, failure to hold $111,000 warns of a deeper sweep toward $107,000.

Risk management first

Flows remain lighter than prior impulse rallies, FOMC volatility can whipsaw both sides, and correlation to equities can snap back. Size modestly, use hard stops around clearly defined invalidation levels, and avoid chasing moves into known supply without confirmation.

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