Kaspa holders are staring down a pattern most traders only recognize in hindsight: a classic blow-off top followed by a long, grinding bleed. A widely watched analyst from Crypto Mindset argues that keeping KAS into 2026 could turn a winning cycle into dead capital — not because Kaspa is “bad,” but because timing a post-parabolic asset demands discipline. If you’re long KAS without a plan, the next 12–18 months could be the most expensive education of the cycle.

What’s happening on the chart

On the weekly chart, RSI slipped below 50 in December 2024 and price fell under the 50-week moving average — two conditions the analyst calls a structural “risk-on to risk-off” flip. Since then, KAS has posted lower highs and lower lows with a drawdown north of 90%. The analogue offered: Bitcoin’s 2014–2015 cycle, where a >500x run retraced deeply and then ranged for nearly two years before a new uptrend.

Why it matters to traders

Post-parabola altcoins often experience prolonged time-based corrections even after large price declines. That means the biggest risk isn’t a single crash; it’s months of underperformance while capital sits trapped. If Bitcoin cools, altcoins typically fall harder — and that correlation risk compounds drawdowns and opportunity cost.

Key signals to watch before turning bullish

• Weekly RSI reclaim and hold above ~52 for multiple closes.
• 50W MA reclaim, then turn upward with price building higher lows above it.
• Break of the last major lower high with rising volume.
• Visible accumulation range (multi-month sideways) with failed breakdowns.
• Bitcoin in a risk-on posture (healthy consolidation or trend resumption), not mid-correction.

A tactical playbook to protect capital

• Define invalidation: If price can’t close back above the 50W MA and reclaim RSI 52, assume trend remains down.
• Wait for structure: Accumulate only inside a well-defined range after volatility compresses.
• Stage entries: Use staggered bids and DCA only after the first breakout-and-retest above range highs.
• Position sizing: Keep initial risk small; add on confirmation, not on hope.
• Rotate smart: Consider holding dry powder in stablecoins or higher-conviction, trend-confirmed assets while you wait.

Opportunity on the other side

The analyst’s base case: KAS could bottom mid-to-late 2026, echoing Bitcoin’s 2015–2016 accumulation. That phase, if it appears, is where the best risk-adjusted entries live. The edge goes to traders who treat time as a risk factor, prioritize capital preservation, and let the chart prove the trend has turned.

Bottom line

You don’t have to love or hate Kaspa — you need a process. If the weekly structure and momentum don’t confirm, holding through deep red months is a choice, not a necessity. Let the market earn your risk.

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