Bitcoin just flashed a classic bull-market tell: despite a sharp pullback, on-chain stress remains muted as Relative Unrealized Loss stays under 5% and price has reclaimed the 0.85 cost-basis band. Translation for traders: the market is signaling resilience, but one line on the chart now separates a momentum rebuild from a deeper reset. Handle this like a pro—trade the support, respect the invalidation.

What Glassnode Is Seeing Right Now

Glassnode’s latest read shows Relative Unrealized Loss < 5%, historically aligned with bull phases where pullbacks reset leverage without breaking trend. Bitcoin has reclaimed the 0.85 cost-basis band—a risk level turned support—implying upside momentum can return if that zone holds. Meanwhile, realized cap continues to grow (sustained capital inflows), there are no major institutional sell-offs, and roughly 95% of addresses are in profit, confirming robust network health.

Why It Matters for Traders

Low unrealized losses typically mean dips are orderly, not panic-driven. Reclaiming the 0.85 cost-basis band gives a clear pivot: above it, trend participants can press longs; below it, expect a fast trip to lower territory. But with most addresses in profit, any push higher can face supply from profit-takers—so entries need tight risk controls and disciplined profit-taking.

Actionable Plan: Trade the Support, Respect the Invalidation

• Define the level: Mark the 0.85 cost-basis band as your key support. Set alerts slightly above/below.
• Bias while above: Favor spot adds or light leverage on clean retests that hold on the 4H/1D close. Place stops just under the band; avoid overexposure.
• Flip defensive if lost: If a daily close breaks below with rising volume, reduce risk, hedge, or look for relief bounces to fade until the level is reclaimed.
• Monitor on-chain + derivatives: Track RUL trend, MVRV, SOPR > 1 (healthier rebounds), funding rates (crowded longs), and exchange net inflows (sell pressure).
• Options for precision: Spot holders can sell covered calls into resistance; risk-managed traders can buy protective puts around support tests.
• Risk rules: Keep per-trade risk near 0.5–1% of equity. Predefine invalidation and stick to it.
• Timeframe confluence: Prioritize entries when 4H structure aligns with a 1D hold of the band.

Key Risks to Watch

• Loss of the 0.85 band: Opens path to lower realized price zones and a sentiment shift.
• Exchange inflow spikes: Whale deposits often precede supply-driven drawdowns.
• Long-term holder distribution: Profit-taking into strength can cap rallies.
• Macro shocks/liquidity pockets: Weekends and data releases amplify moves.

Bottom Line

As long as Bitcoin holds the 0.85 cost-basis band, the bull template remains intact and momentum can rebuild. Make the level your guide: participate above it, protect capital below it. Discipline beats prediction—especially when the market is resilient but one break away from a deeper move.

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