Volatility spiked, yet an under-the-hood signal flipped green: Glassnode’s on-chain data shows Bitcoin’s Relative Unrealized Loss remains below 5%—a level historically seen during bull-market pullbacks, not tops. Even more telling, BTC has reclaimed the 0.85 cost-basis band, potentially turning a prior risk zone into support. Here’s what that means for your next trade—and where this edge fails.

Glassnode’s Read: Resilience Under The Surface

Glassnode confirms BTC’s Relative Unrealized Loss stays under 5%, consistent with prior bull phases during corrections. The network has recovered the 0.85 cost-basis band, a level that, if held, often precedes momentum rebuilds. Meanwhile, realized cap continues to grow—evidence of net capital inflows—and there are no major institutional sell-offs on-chain. Notably, an estimated ~95% of addresses remain in profit, tempering forced-selling risk.

Why This Matters To Traders

Low unrealized losses suggest dips are seeing absorptive demand rather than panic distribution. When price sits above a key cost-basis band, the average holder is in control, and pullbacks into that zone can create high-R:R entries. Lose the band decisively, and the market often retests lower liquidity before finding footing.

Levels and Signals To Watch

• 0.85 cost-basis band: Treat as pivot. Hold = constructive; loss = downside risk.
• Realized cap growth: Sustained climb supports dips; flattening warns of waning inflows.
• SOPR > 1 on spot-led bounces: Confirms profitable spending and trend health.
• Derivatives: Neutral-to-positive funding and contained basis favor continuation; spiking leverage = caution.

Actionable Trade Plan

• Entry: Scale into pullbacks that tag the 0.85 band with higher low structure on 4H/1D.
• Invalidation: Daily close below the band and failure to reclaim within 24–48h.
• Targets: Prior local high/liquidity cluster; trail stops under higher lows.
• Position sizing: Keep risk per trade ≤1%; add only on confirmed structure.

Bear-Side Scenarios (Know Your Risks)

• Clean break and acceptance below the 0.85 band → retest of lower range.
• Realized cap stalls while funding rises → rally driven by leverage, prone to flushes.
• Macro shock or ETF outflows → invalidate on-chain support temporarily.

Investor Lens

• Maintain a DCA plan into weakness while the 0.85 band holds and realized cap trends up.
• Use pullbacks to rebalance; avoid overexposure at local strength.
• Track long-term holder supply and profit-taking to gauge late-cycle risk.

Bottom Line

As long as BTC holds above the 0.85 cost-basis band with unrealized losses under 5% and realized cap rising, the path of least resistance favors a momentum rebuild. Lose that pivot decisively, and expect a deeper range retest. Trade the level, not the narrative.

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