Bitcoin’s fourth straight daily drop wasn’t triggered by fear—it was triggered by certainty. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% as expected, but paired the move with hawkish guidance that cooled expectations for a December cut. Add a Trump–Xi trade de-escalation that was also widely anticipated, a surge in leveraged liquidations, sizable ETF outflows, and a looming death cross on the daily chart, and you get a classic sell the news cascade that flushed weak hands and repriced risk.

What just happened?

The Fed delivered a second consecutive 25 bps cut—but Chair Powell signaled that further easing isn’t guaranteed. Implied odds for a December cut slid from over 90% to roughly 65%, undercutting the “easy-liquidity-now” narrative. In parallel, a tactical trade truce between Trump and Xi reduced near-term uncertainty—another “as expected” event that encouraged profit-taking across risk assets. Result: Bitcoin sank to its lowest level since Oct. 23 as markets repriced the path of policy and growth.

Why this matters to traders

Hawkish cuts are kryptonite for risk when positioning is crowded. When the policy path is perceived as tighter-than-hoped, high-beta assets like BTC typically adjust fast. If you were long into the decision, this was the textbook reminder that expectation management—not just the headline move—drives price. In short: the Fed cut wasn’t the catalyst; the guidance was.

Flows and leverage: the accelerants

Liquidations spiked above $483 million in 24 hours, including a single wipeout of $21.4 million on Hyperliquid—evidence of forced selling magnifying the move. Futures open interest fell from about $94B to $73B this month as the market deleveraged.

At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw notable outflows: more than $470 million on Wednesday, with weekly net outflows around $118 million. The heaviest redemptions hit Fidelity’s FBTC (~$164M), ARK’s ARKB (~$143M), and BlackRock’s IBIT (~$88M). When ETF flows turn negative while leverage unwinds, dips can become air pockets.

Technical picture: death cross risk

BTC was rejected near $116,370 earlier this week and now flirts with a daily death cross—the 50-day WMA threatening to cross below the 200-day WMA. If confirmed, trend-followers may add selling pressure. A break and close below key supports opens a path toward the psychological $100,000 area and potentially lower if flows stay negative.

Actionable game plan

• Respect momentum: Avoid countertrend longs until daily structure stabilizes (look for a higher low and a daily close back above the 50D WMA).
• Watch flows first: Three consecutive days of net-positive spot ETF inflows + rising open interest on flat/negative funding is a healthier long setup.
• Trade the levels, not the hope: Use round numbers (e.g., $110K, $105K, $100K) as areas to scale plans, but demand confirmation via declining liquidations and stable basis.
• Hedge smartly: If long spot, consider short futures or protective puts dated past the next key macro print; define invalidation above/below your trigger MA.
• Size down and widen stops: Volatility + thin liquidity after big flushes can whipsaw tight risk. Keep risk per trade small and let the market come to you.

Bottom line

This was a sell-the-news move amplified by leverage and ETF outflows, now reinforced by a fragile technical backdrop. Patience pays: let flows stabilize, let the chart confirm, and trade with the trend—not against it.

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