Two numbers are about to decide Ethereum’s next chapter—and your next trade. As ETH coils between a **$3,600–$3,800** range after a clean impulse from the **$3,500** lows, the market is telegraphing a simple but high‑impact fork: buy the **$3,640** dip for a potential wave‑3 push toward **$4,500**, or fade a **$4,300** rejection for a slide that can accelerate toward **$3,200**. With ETF inflows surging and post‑Dencun tailwinds still in play, the next decisive 4H close may set the tone for the rest of Q4.

What’s happening now

ETH printed a textbook Elliott Wave “impulse” off the **$3,500** bottom, rallying ~12% to **$3,950** and then compressing in a **$3,600–$3,800** bracket. Volume shows buy‑side accumulation on pullbacks, the MACD histogram turned positive for the first time since September, and **RSI ~55** is coiling—not overbought, not oversold. Technically, **$3,640** screens as the “sweet spot” for a wave‑2 retrace entry, with a measured extension aligning with **$4,500** if momentum confirms.

Why this matters to traders

It’s not just squiggly lines. Fundamentals are supportive: - Spot ETH ETFs reportedly saw **$2.1B** weekly inflows, outpacing BTC. - Post‑Dencun, L2 fees dropped ~**90%**, helping push DeFi TVL to about **$120B** (+30%). - On‑chain strength: ~**1.2M** daily active addresses (+22% QoQ). - **BTC dominance <55%** hints at improving altcoin beta—favorable when ETH trends.

But risks are real: a delayed Fed pivot, liquidity drawn to faster ecosystems, or a clean break below **$3,600** can unwind longs toward **$3,200** quickly.

Key levels and triggers

- Support: **$3,640** (buy‑the‑dip zone), then **$3,600** (line in the sand) - Range resistance: **$3,950–$4,000**, major: **$4,300** - Breakout trigger: 4H close above **$4,300** opens **$4,500** and potentially **$5,000** - Breakdown trigger: 4H close below **$3,600** exposes **$3,350–$3,200**

Actionable trade map

• Long setup: Scale in near $3,620–$3,660; invalidate on a 4H close below $3,600. Partial takes at $3,950 and $4,300; let a runner aim for $4,500.
• Breakout continuation: Wait for a 4H close above $4,300 with rising volume; target $4,500 then manage into $4,800–$5,000.
• Short setup: If price wicks into $4,280–$4,320 and rejects (lower high on 1H/4H), enter with invalidation above the swing high; targets $3,950 then $3,600, stretch to $3,200 on momentum.
• Risk control: Use OCO orders, cap risk per idea to 0.5–1.0% of equity, and avoid adding to losers. If funding overheats, favor mean‑reversion trims.

How to confirm the move

Look for confluence: rising spot volume on green candles, tightening funding into breakouts, and L2 activity staying firm. If BTC chops while ETH prints higher lows above **$3,640**, the path of least resistance is up; if BTC pulls back and ETH loses **$3,600**, step aside or flip bias quickly.

Bottom line

ETH is in a balanced but catalytic posture: hold **$3,640** and momentum can extend to **$4,500**; fail **$3,600** and the path opens to **$3,200**. Let price prove it at the edges, define invalidation clearly, and trade the reaction—not the prediction.

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