Ethereum’s biggest buyers just flipped the script: after unloading aggressively in early October, wallets holding 100–10,000 ETH quietly snapped up 218,470 ETH in a week. Their stash now sits at 23.05M ETH, and price has been coiling versus BTC in a tight 0.035–0.038 range. Is this the smart money front‑running a breakout toward $5,940–$7,400—or the calm before another shakeout?

What Just Changed On-Chain

Santiment data shows a sharp turnaround: the “whale and shark” cohort added 218k ETH after dumping roughly 1.36M ETH between Oct 5–16. Prior to October’s correction, these wallets held near 24.5M ETH, then cut risk into the drop. The renewed bid lifts holdings back to 23.05M ETH as of Oct 23, signaling recovering conviction.

Price action supports the shift: ETH/BTC has held a narrow 0.035–0.038 channel, with stability closely mirroring the return of whale inflows. This is the first meaningful accumulation phase since late-September’s drawdown.

Why It Matters to Traders

Large cohorts often accumulate early in recovery phases, providing liquidity and cushioning downside. Combined with a constructive technical backdrop—analysts noting a potential 5‑wave impulse where the ongoing correction is wave (4)—the tape suggests a base-building process. Fibonacci extensions project wave (5) targets near $5,940 with stretch toward $7,400, so long as price stays above the prior wave (4) base.

The caveat: whale flows can reverse quickly. Range-bound ETH/BTC implies the market still awaits a catalyst; failure to hold the lower band or a sudden return to distribution would weaken the bull case.

Key Levels and Setups to Watch

• ETH/BTC: A firm breakout and daily close above 0.038 would signal rotation into ETH; loss of 0.035 risks a deeper pullback.
• Spot ETH: Reclaiming and holding above the $4,000 psychological zone improves odds for a trend push toward $5,940 and potentially $7,400.
• Wave Structure: The impulse thesis holds while price remains above the prior wave (4) base; define your invalidation at that swing low on your chart.
• On‑chain Confluence: Monitor net position change for 100–10k ETH wallets. Continued positive inflows over multiple sessions strengthen trend confidence.
• Derivatives Health: Favor neutral/negative funding with rising spot demand; beware overheated open interest and crowded longs into resistance.
• Risk Controls: Trade the range until confirmed breakout; scale in on retests, place stops beneath the most recent higher low, and size down into major resistance zones.

Risks That Could Break the Thesis

A swift return to whale distribution, rejection at 0.038 ETH/BTC, a spike in BTC dominance, or liquidity shocks around macro headlines could unwind momentum. Thin weekend books can amplify wicks—avoid overleverage.

Bottom Line

Rising whale accumulation plus a constructive technical structure sets the stage for an ETH rebound, but confirmation still hinges on ETH/BTC clearing 0.038 and spot sustaining above $4,000. Let the market prove strength, then press winners with a predefined invalidation.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.