After a brutal early-October shakeout, the same Ethereum whales that dumped over 1.36M ETH are quietly buying back in—adding roughly 218,470 ETH in a week. With ETH/BTC holding a tight 0.035–0.038 range and sentiment turning, the question for traders is simple: is this the first leg of a sustained recovery—or a smart-money head fake?

Whales Flip Back to Accumulation

Wallets holding 100–10,000 ETH have rebuilt positions to about 23.05M ETH (as of Oct 23), per Santiment, after one of the quarter’s largest distributions between Oct 5–16. Pre-correction, this cohort sat near 24.5M ETH, reflecting steady mid-year buildup before profit-taking hit.

What’s notable: price stability overlapped with renewed whale accumulation, a pattern often seen in bases forming before the next move. The cohort’s behavior frequently leads spot flows and liquidity conditions.

Why This Matters to Traders

- Confidence signal: Accumulation by larger holders can precede improved depth and reduced downside tails. - Relative strength lens: ETH/BTC holding the 0.035–0.038 band suggests ETH is defending key relative support, a constructive backdrop for rotation trades. - Timing context: First meaningful inflows since late-September’s rollover—early signs of a trend rebuild, not confirmation of a full trend reversal.

Technicals: Wave (4) or Bull Trap?

Analyst Stockmoney Lizards highlights a textbook 5-wave impulse with the current leg likely a wave (4) correction—typically shallow and time-consuming. Based on Fibonacci extensions, potential wave (5) targets sit around $5,940, with an extended push toward $7,400. The structure remains valid while price holds above the prior wave (4) base. Translation for traders: the trend case improves on higher highs with rising volume; it weakens if key support breaks.

Actionable Game Plan

• Track the cohort: Monitor holdings of 100–10,000 ETH wallets via on-chain dashboards (e.g., Santiment). Sustained net inflows strengthen the bull case; outflows warn of distribution.
• Define invalidation: Mark the last higher low (wave (4) base) as your structural line in the sand. A daily close below it reduces long exposure.
• Use ETH/BTC as a guide: Set alerts at 0.035 (support) and 0.038 (range top). A clean breakout with volume favors ETH rotation; a rejection argues for patience.
• Scale entries: Ladder buys near support with tight risk; avoid chasing green candles. Consider partial profits into liquidity pockets.
• Hedge smartly: If long spot, consider protective puts or reducing size into overextended funding/oi spikes to manage tail risk.

Key Risks to Watch

- Distribution into strength: Whales can sell into rallies—watch for rising exchange inflows alongside price spikes. - False breakouts: Range tops often trap late longs; insist on confirmation (close and follow-through with volume). - Macro/regulatory headlines: Sudden policy shifts or risk-off moves can invalidate setups quickly. - Leverage froth: Elevated perp funding and surging open interest without spot bid increase liquidation risk.

Bottom Line

The combo of whale accumulation, stable ETH/BTC, and a potential wave (4) basing phase suggests the market is rebuilding structure after October’s drawdown. Execution edge comes from respecting invalidation, letting flows confirm, and scaling rather than chasing. The next decisive cue: a credible ETH/BTC breakout or a clean higher high on rising spot demand.

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