Ethereum just reclaimed the psychologically heavy $4,000 mark and the tape is behaving like a maturing bull: higher highs, higher lows, stronger breadth, and rising open interest. With analysts openly framing $10,000 as the next big target, the real question for traders isn’t “if,” but “how” to navigate the path between here and five digits without getting chopped up by volatility.

What’s Happening Right Now

ETH has broken successive resistance zones—$1,500 → $2,200 → $4,000—on expanding volume and improving ETH/BTC relative strength, signaling fresh capital rotation into Ethereum. On-chain, staking keeps a meaningful share of supply sidelined while Layer 2 throughput and fee compression continue to support network activity. Structurally, the market is rewarding assets with clear catalysts: Dencun’s impact now reflected, and the Pectra roadmap fueling medium-term optimism.

Why This Matters to Traders

Momentum-driven phases in crypto tend to accelerate once multi-year levels flip to support. In the last cycle, ETH moved from $400 to $4,000 in under a year after breaking its ceiling. Today’s setup rhymes: a weekly close above $4,000 puts the prior ATH (~$4,868) within striking distance. Clear that, and the market enters “price discovery,” where extensions and sentiment often overshoot fair value. For traders, this phase can be extremely profitable—but also unforgiving if you chase late or ignore risk.

Key Levels and Structure

• Support: $4,000 (psych), $3,800–$3,900 (prior range top), $3,500 (trend support).
• Resistance: $4,500 (supply), prior ATH ~$4,868, then round numbers $5,500 / $6,000.
• Invalidation: Weekly close back below $3,800 weakens the breakout thesis.
• ETH/BTC: Continued strength supports the rotation narrative and risk-on appetite.

Catalysts To Watch

• Network upgrades: Continued progress toward Pectra can reinforce the structural bull case.
• Institutional flows: Fund inflows, L2 adoption metrics, and stable on-chain fees sustain demand.
• Macro: Rate-cut expectations and USD strength can amplify or dampen momentum.

Risks You Should Respect

• Overextension: If funding skews aggressively positive and perp premiums spike, a flush is likely.
• Supply walls: The ATH zone (~$4.8k) is real. Expect profit-taking and whipsaws on first tests.
• Macro headlines: Hawkish surprises or liquidity shocks can unwind leverage quickly.
• Rotation risk: If ETH/BTC rolls over, capital may swing back to BTC or sidelined stables.

Actionable Game Plan

• Trade the retest: Prefer adds on controlled pullbacks into $4,000–$3,900 with tight invalidation rather than chasing green candles.
• Respect resistance: Scale out into $4,500–$4,900 on first touch; re-add if weekly closes reclaim ATH with strength.
• Use a trigger: If ETH holds a weekly close above $4,000 and ETH/BTC trends up, maintain a long bias with measured size.
• Manage risk: Keep stops below $3,800 on swing positions; reduce leverage when funding becomes crowded.
• Plan the “what if” to $10K: If ATH is reclaimed, map Fibonacci extensions and round-number ladders ($5.5k, $6k, $8k, $10k) for staggered exits.

The path to $10,000 isn’t guaranteed, but the market’s structure now favors trend-followers who buy strength on retests, sell into supply, and let winners run if price discovery begins. Stay data-driven, let the weekly chart be your guide, and keep risk tight while the cycle does the heavy lifting.

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