Bitcoin is grinding into a dense supply wall near $116k–$117k just as U.S. spot ETFs add nearly $2B in fresh inflows and the FOMC looms. Order books show heavier bids below price, on‑chain signals say short-term holders are back in profit, and a long-liquidity pocket at $114k could magnetize price before the next impulse. This is the kind of setup where the next headline decides the next $5k.

What’s happening right now

BTC trades around $115,863 (24h -0.10%, 7d +4.12%), consolidating between $115,304–$116,183. Immediate support sits near $115,300; resistance stacks at $116,200–$117,000.

On-chain, roughly 534,000 BTC (~2.68% supply) sit near break-even around $116,963, the same band that capped price after July’s ATH near $123k. STH NUPL flipped negative in late August at -0.07 during the drop to $108k and has since recovered as price bounced ~8% off $107k—inviting potential distribution into resistance.

Order books show about $32M in bids two percent below spot versus $22M in asks two percent above, with a notable $40M long-liquidity pocket near $114k. Meanwhile, U.S. spot ETFs continue a strong creation streak (nearly $2B this week), while retail remains cautious and larger entities add via funds and balance sheets.

Why this matters to traders

The market is coiled between supportive flows and a heavy supply wall. A clean break over $116k–$117k could sprint to $118k–$120k. Failure likely reopens $114.5k–$115k, then $112k and $107k—especially into policy risk.

Macro is the catalyst: the FOMC meets next week with markets leaning toward cuts. A supportive decision can clear offers and trigger momentum; a surprise hold or hawkish tone could unwind the bounce. Technically, the RSI isn’t overbought, moving averages hold, and 93.6% of supply is in profit—fuel for either breakout momentum or profit-taking.

Actionable game plan

• Breakout plan: Consider a momentum entry on a 1–4h close above $116.2k–$117k with invalidation below $115.3k; target $118k then $120k.
• Fade plan: If price rejects $116.5k–$117k on rising open interest and negative delta, consider a tactical short with stops above $117.3k, targeting $115k then $114.5k.
• Liquidity hunts: Watch the $114k long-liquidity pocket for potential stop-runs and reactive bounces; ladder bids cautiously and avoid chasing wicks.
• Event risk: Reduce leverage into FOMC; hedge with short-dated options or tighten stops. Volatility is two-sided.
• Flow confirms: Treat daily ETF net creations > $500M as breakout confirmation; soft or negative flows favor range or downside tests.

Key levels and signals to watch

• Resistance: $116.2k, $117k, $118k, $120k
• Support: $115.3k, $114.5k–$115k, $114k (liquidity), $112k, $107k
• On-chain: STH NUPL trending higher = reduced forced sellers; watch for profit-taking spikes near resistance
• Microstructure: Bid/ask skew and liquidity shifts around $114k and $117k
• Macro: FOMC statement and dot plot; first move may be false—wait for 30–60 minutes of confirmation

Bottom line

This is a classic “flows vs. wall” standoff: ETF demand and dip bids support price, but a thick $116k–$117k supply band and policy risk cap momentum. Let the market tip its hand—trade the break with defined invalidation, or patiently fade failed pushes into the wall. Discipline will beat FOMO into this decision window.

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