Bitcoin’s blistering momentum just slipped into a cooler gear as fresh demand fell by roughly two-thirds from July’s peak, while whales locked in billions in profits—yet on-chain says the next meaningful battleground could be near $110K. Is this the start of a range, a final shakeout, or the base for the next leg higher? Traders who read the tape—not the headlines—could find cleaner entries and tighter risk.
What Changed: Demand Cools, Profit-Taking Climbs
Apparent BTC demand has declined from a July peak of 174,000 BTC to about 59,000 BTC, per CryptoQuant. Institutional accumulation is still positive but slower; a leading business intelligence firm “Strategy” reportedly cut 30-day purchases from 171,000 to 27,000. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are at a four-month low, with 30-day net buys near 11,000 BTC—levels last seen in late April.
CryptoQuant’s composite market readout shifted from “Extra Bullish” to “Bullish Cooldown” after BTC pushed past $120K, aligning with the recent price fade and consolidation risk.
Why It Matters for Traders
A bullish cooldown typically precedes sideways action or mild corrections. Without a rebound in demand signals, upside follow-through can remain limited. Meanwhile, new whale cohorts have realized at least $74B in profits since July 4, including a $9B single-day peak and about $2B on Aug 16. This profit-taking acts as a rolling supply overhang that dampens impulsive rallies.
Key Levels and On-Chain Context
BTC hovered near $116K at writing, with analysts flagging potential support around the $110K Trader On-chain Realized Price (T-ORP). In bull cycles, T-ORP often works as mean-reversion support because traders’ unrealized profit compresses toward zero, reducing the incentive to sell. If demand remains soft, expect a consolidation band between realized-price support and the recent breakout area. A decisive reclaim in spot + ETF demand would be the cleanest trigger for trend re-acceleration.
Actionable Playbook in a Bullish Cooldown
- Track demand first: Watch 30-day spot ETF net flows and on-chain “apparent demand.” A sustained uptick toward prior July levels strengthens long setups.
- Trade the range: Consider building bids near $110K (T-ORP) and fading into $120K–$122K until demand broadens. Keep stops tight below the range to avoid chop.
- De-risk leverage: Use smaller size and wider timeframes; liquidity thins during cool-downs, amplifying wicks and stop runs.
- Confirm with structure: Look for higher lows on the daily plus improving spot CVD and rising open interest backed by spot—not perps-only.
- Monitor whales: Spikes in realized profits often precede pullbacks. Fading their exits without demand confirmation is risky.
- Hedge smartly: If long, consider short-dated put spreads or covered calls to monetize range while waiting for clearer trend signals.
Bottom Line
Momentum cooled, but the market remains constructive if $110K holds and demand reappears. Let the data lead: if ETFs and on-chain demand inflect higher, the path opens for a renewed push; if not, treat bounces as range plays with disciplined risk control.
If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.
20% Cashback with Bitunix
Every Day you get cashback to your Spot Account.