Bitcoin just hit its time-based marker again—exactly 1064 days from the 2022 bear-market low to this month’s new all-time high—right as U.S. inflation and a Fed decision collide with a sharp chill in U.S.–China trade. One chart hints at a cycle peak, another at continuation. The question isn’t “bull or bear,” it’s “where’s your edge over the next 72 hours?”

Bitcoin’s 1064-Day Pattern: Signal or Noise?

In the last two cycles, BTC peaked exactly 1064 days after the bear-market bottom. From November 2022 to a fresh high near $126,220 this month, the timing rhymes again, suggesting a potential bull-phase climax. But “cycle laws” aren’t physics: prior cycles have broken expectations, and BTC has previously failed to hold former ATHs as support in abnormal markets.

Why it matters: If this is a late-cycle push, tops are often defined by violent ranges, failed breakouts, and rapid rotations. Traders should focus on confirmation—not narratives.

Macro Watch: Inflation Print and the Fed

The upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve rate decision are high-volatility catalysts. A hot print or hawkish tone can lift the dollar and yields, compressing risk appetite; a dovish tilt can extend risk-on. First moves post-release often whipsaw.

Actionable angle: Treat the first 15–30 minutes after data as price discovery. Let the initial impulse exhaust, then trade the level retest with defined risk.

U.S.–China Trade Chill: Why Crypto Cares

NVIDIA’s CEO flagged stalled China business amid tariffs and restrictions, while data show Chinese exports to the U.S. down 18% YoY in the first nine months of 2025 (down 29% since 2022). Small parcel shipments plunged 50%; LCD TV exports dropped 73% last quarter. Slowing trade can pressure tech margins and equities—assets that have tightly correlated with crypto liquidity in 2025.

Implication: A deeper risk-off in equities could hit alts first, while BTC, with stronger liquidity, tends to outperform on down days.

Levels to Watch: BTC, ETH, LINK

BTC sits above the 200-day MA. Bulls want a daily close to hold that line. Upside, the $110K–$111K zone aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci extension and prior S/R—expect heavy two-way flow there. ETH often shines late-cycle; some analysts note ETH making larger peaks while BTC makes lower highs at cycle turns. Chainlink sentiment improved as a notable address reportedly added 63,481 LINK, taking reserves to 586,640 LINK; price hovered near $17.47 (+1.2%). Treat single-wallet changes as signal plus, not signal proof.

Actionable Playbook for the Week

• Mark event risk: schedule alerts for the inflation release and the Fed statement/press conference; reduce leverage into the print.
• BTC plan: hold above the 200-day MA favors dips-to-buy; failure back below flips bias to sell rallies toward the MA.
• Key pivot: fade extremes into $110K–$111K unless a clean breakout is confirmed by high-volume acceptance above.
• ETH/BTC rotation: watch ETH/BTC; sustained strength could signal an alt-led late-cycle phase—trade pairs, not just USD.
• Alts risk filter: in risk-off, prioritize liquidity (BTC, ETH). Keep alt exposure smaller and stops tighter.
• Options hedge: consider short-dated puts or collars around event windows to cap downside without exiting core exposure.
• Execution: wait for retests; avoid chasing first spikes. Let volatility work for you, not against you.

Risk Management in a Late-Cycle Move

Late-cycle tapes print big wicks and trap breakouts. Use hard stops, stagger entries, and pre-define invalidation. If BTC rejects the $110K–$111K band with rising funding and negative spot/CVD, that’s a classic reversal tell. Conversely, a high-volume reclaim and hold above turns the zone into support—ride with a trailing stop.

Bottom Line

The 1064-day rhyme is compelling—but the tape will confirm. Into the inflation/Fed double-header, respect the 200-day MA on BTC, the $110K–$111K decision zone, and ETH/BTC rotation. Plan the trade, trade the plan, and let the macro catalyst set the tempo.

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