Greed is back on the dashboard and the market is moving accordingly: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index just printed 64 (Greed) as Bitcoin ripped to $118,000+ while Ethereum briefly slipped below $4,400 before rebounding. Yet under the hood, $175M in liquidations and rising ETF outflows suggest a fragile tape where FOMO collides with thinning liquidity—prime conditions for sharp squeezes and equally sharp reversals.

What just happened

Bitcoin trades around $118,028 with market dominance at 58.73%. BTC’s market cap sits near $2.35T, and 24h volume fell 26.69% to $47.16B, even as its 60‑day performance is up 12.48%. Spot ETF flows turned soft: $14.01M outflow in BTC products and $59.30M outflow in ETH. The session saw $175M in liquidations across majors—classic “Greed regime” behavior where leverage builds and gets reset in bursts.

Why this matters to traders

Greed above 60 historically coincides with: - Elevated intraday volatility and more stop hunts. - Late-cycle chasing in majors while breadth narrows (BTC dominance up tends to pressure alts). - Flow fragility: negative ETF prints often precede intraday rips that fail at resistance.

With volumes down and prices extended, the tape becomes more headline- and flow-sensitive; small order imbalances can push price further than expected.

Context and levels to watch

- BTC: $120,000 is the psychological magnet/resistance. Watch pullbacks to $115,000–$116,000 as first support; below that, momentum fatigue likely. - ETH: Reclaiming and holding $4,400 converts it to support; failure risks a drift into $4,250–$4,300. - Flows: If ETF outflows persist into the US close, rallies are more likely to fade. A flip to net inflows would validate breakouts.

One actionable takeaway

Trade the volatility, not the emotion: in a Greed 64 environment, prioritize reaction over prediction—fade impulsive breakouts into resistance unless ETF flows and volume confirm, and buy controlled pullbacks only when liquidity improves.

Risk management playbook (quick)

• Cut leverage: size positions using volatility (e.g., max risk per trade tied to 1–1.5x ATR).
• Use hard stops outside obvious swing highs/lows to avoid easy liquidity grabs.
• Stagger entries/exits; don’t go all-in on breakouts near $120K BTC.
• Hedge majors with short-dated puts or collars ahead of key sessions (US close, Asia open).
• Track ETF net flows and funding/OI—only add risk when they align with price.

Opportunity and caution

Momentum remains constructive for BTC on higher timeframes, but the combination of ETF outflows, lower spot volume, and rising dominance argues for selective exposure. Expect two-way price action: fast rips for scalpers, traps for chasers. Patience and disciplined execution will likely outperform prediction in this phase.

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