Beijing just quietly rewired its financial engine—and crypto should pay attention. As China’s State Council reviews a comprehensive financial work report focused on stability, supervision, and the global reach of the yuan, Bitcoin is pressing to new heights on thinner volume. That combination—potentially looser liquidity with tighter oversight—can set the tone for risk assets in the weeks ahead, even without explicit crypto policy changes.

What happened

China’s State Council presented a financial work report to the NPC Standing Committee emphasizing a strong regulatory framework, a moderately loose monetary policy, reinforced supervision, and the internationalization of the RMB. The focus: support the real economy, safeguard financial security, and expand high-level opening-up. While no direct crypto measures were unveiled, the policy mix signals Beijing’s intent to maintain stability while nudging cross-border financial influence via the yuan.

Why traders should care

Liquidity drives risk. A moderately easier stance and RMB internationalization can indirectly expand global liquidity channels—supportive for risk assets, including crypto—if dollar conditions don’t tighten in parallel. But “reinforced supervision” implies credit discipline. For traders, the message is a two-sided coin: potential tailwinds for beta assets like BTC, tempered by policy risk if credit or capital flows are reined in.

Signals to monitor this week

• USD/CNH and DXY: Softer dollar or stronger CNH tends to ease global financial conditions—historically constructive for BTC.
• PBoC operations: Net liquidity injections (OMOs/MLF) and interbank rates (SHIBOR, CNH HIBOR) as a proxy for domestic easing.
• Stablecoin net issuance: Growth in USDT/USDC float often precedes crypto liquidity upswings.
• BTC dominance: Rising dominance suggests macro-driven flows; falling dominance favors risk rotation to alts.
• Perp funding and options IV skew: Overheated funding or extreme call skew = crowding risk and wick potential.
• Asia-session flows: Watch BTC volatility in Asia hours for early read-through of regional sentiment.

Strategy ideas to consider

• Trade pullbacks, not euphoria: With 24h volume down, fade late breakouts; favor entries on retests of prior breakout zones with tight, predefined stops.
• Let liquidity be your guide: If stablecoin issuance and CNH strength trend up together, consider maintaining core exposure; if they diverge, reduce risk.
• Respect round numbers: BTC often magnetizes to psychological levels; scale risk around these areas rather than chasing.
• Hedge crowding: When funding turns rich, consider partial hedges (e.g., short dated put spreads) to protect against long squeezes.
• Time your risk: If Asia leads upside, avoid initiating size into New York close; look for Asia open follow-through.

Risks and invalidation

• Policy whiplash: “Reinforced supervision” could tighten credit or cross-border flows faster than expected—bearish for beta.
• Dollar snapback: A sharp DXY rally or CNH weakness can drain global liquidity and pressure BTC.
• Liquidity fragility: Price up on falling volume increases stop-run and wick risk—avoid oversized positions.
• Regulatory overhang: Any explicit crypto restrictions (domestic or abroad) would negate the liquidity tailwind thesis.

By the numbers

According to CoinMarketCap at 08:31 UTC on October 26, 2025: BTC $111,795.70, market cap $2.23T, dominance 59.06%, 24h volume -43.20%, 7d change +4.79%. Rising price on lighter volume argues for disciplined entries and active risk management.

Bottom line

China’s push for RMB internationalization alongside a moderately loose stance can be a subtle liquidity tailwind for crypto, but supervision risk and dollar dynamics remain decisive. Track CNH, stablecoin supply, and funding—trade the pullbacks, not the headlines.

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