Bitcoin just slipped beneath the psychological $110K mark, stalling right on its 200-day EMA (~$109K)—a classic battleground where trend followers and range traders collide. Intraday RSI ~45 and a negative MACD signal waning momentum, while volume sits ~30% below its 7-day average. Translation: the market is coiling, not collapsing. The smarter move now isn’t to predict the breakout—it’s to position for it.

State of Play: Momentum Cools, Range Takes Over

BTC trades near $109,351, down ~1.1% from yesterday’s close at $110,568. Price action is confined to a descending channel on 4H as buyers repeatedly fail near $111.5K and dip-buyers defend $107K–$106K. With volatility contained and liquidity thinning, price is more likely to grind than trend—until a clear trigger fires.

Why It Matters

The 200-day EMA is a long-term trend compass; hovering on it indicates indecision, not reversal. The 106K–111.5K range houses key liquidity: a clean 4H close above $111.5K would flip momentum and target $114K–$116K. Conversely, a break below $106K risks a fast rotation into stablecoins as profit-taking accelerates. In short, the next decisive move likely launches from this box.

Key Levels and Triggers

• Bull trigger: 4H close and hold above $111.5K → look for a retest hold to target $114K–$116K; invalidate if back below $111K.
• Bear trigger: 4H close below $106K → expect momentum selling as risk reduces; invalidate on swift reclaim of $107K.
• Range approach: Respect the box: fade moves into $111.5K, buy defenses near $107K–$106K only with tight, pre-defined stops.

One Actionable Takeaway

Use the 200-day EMA (~$109K) as a bias filter: above it, only take longs on a confirmed $111.5K reclaim; below it, favor shorts/hedges on rejections inside $109K–$111K. This single rule helps you avoid getting chopped while conditions remain trendless.

Risk Controls to Avoid Chop

• Wait for 4H closes on breakouts/breakdowns—ignore wick-only spikes.
• Scale size down in low volume; increase only after confirmation.
• Set alerts at $106K, $109K, $111.5K to act, not react.
• Take partials into strength/weakness; move stops to breakeven after +1R.

Bottom Line

BTC is compressing between $106K–$111.5K with momentum cooling but the macro trend intact. Let the market show its hand: trade the break, or keep range tactics tight and disciplined until volatility returns.

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