Bitcoin is coiling under the 200-day EMA, volatility is compressing, and the tape is losing momentum—classic conditions before a sharp move. Price failed to reclaim the 20-day EMA and now hovers near $107.4K after closing at $108,362, trapped in a tight descending wedge between $114K and $106K. With HV10 ≈ 26 and momentum indicators softening, the next break above $109.9K or below $106.7K is likely to set the next directional leg.

What’s happening now

BTC is trading just below the 200-day EMA (~$109.1K) after repeated failures at the 20-day EMA (~$111–112K). The daily RSI ~43 signals fading strength and the MACD shows a bearish crossover with no positive divergence. On 4-hour charts, lower highs and weak follow-through confirm buyers lack conviction above $110K. Volatility remains muted, increasing the odds of a sudden expansion once one side is forced to capitulate.

Why it matters to traders

Low-volatility wedges near major moving averages often precede outsized moves. A daily close back above $109.9K would reclaim the 200-day zone and likely invite momentum back toward the 20-day EMA (111–112K) and possibly $114K. Conversely, a breakdown through $106.7K risks accelerating to the psychological $105K and then $102K, where trapped longs may add fuel to the downside. This is a location to prepare plans—not to chase noise.

Actionable trade setups

• Momentum long on strength: Consider entries only after a daily close > $109.9K. First targets: $111–112K (EMA20) and $114K. Invalidation: sustained return < $109.3K (back below 200D).
• Momentum short on weakness: If $106.7K breaks with rising volume/OI, target $105.3K → $105K, then $102.9K → $102K. Invalidation: swift reclaim of $107.0–$107.3K.
• Range-fade until break: Fade moves toward $109.9K or $106.7K with tight stops, reduce size into the center. Abandon the strategy once a level decisively breaks.
• Volatility play: Expect HV expansion. Consider options structures (e.g., straddles) where available; for perps, keep leverage modest and wait for a 4h close after the break to avoid fakeouts.
• Risk controls: Predefine invalidation, scale in/out rather than all-in, and watch funding/oi skew to spot crowded sides.

Indicators to confirm the move

• Volume + OI: Breaks accompanied by rising volume and open interest are higher quality; divergence warns of traps.
• RSI/MACD: Look for RSI reclaiming 50 and a bullish MACD cross on 4h/daily for longs; the opposite for shorts.
• Closes vs MAs: Daily close above the 200D EMA favors upside continuation; rejection there keeps bears in control.
• Wicks & delta: Long upper wicks near $109.9K–$111K or heavy negative delta into $106.7K can foreshadow the next push.

Key levels

• Support: $106.7K → $105.3K → $102.9K (then $102K)
• Resistance: $109.9K → $111.8K → $114K
• MAs: 200D EMA ~ $109.1K, 20D EMA ~ $111–112K

Bottom line

Macro structure remains constructively bullish, but the short-term setup is fragile. Let price prove direction: trade the break and confirmation, not the anticipation. Protect capital, size prudently, and let volatility work for you—not against you.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.