A single White House confirmation flipped risk back on: crypto caught a relief bid as traders recalibrated geopolitics, yet the market still sits in fear. Bitcoin reclaimed $111,000, Ethereum is pressing $4,000, and positioning is resetting fast ahead of today’s CPI. Here’s how to trade the next move—before volatility returns.

What changed overnight

Easing U.S.–China tensions lifted digital assets after the White House confirmed a Trump–Xi meeting for Oct. 30 in South Korea alongside APEC. At press time, Bitcoin traded near $111,353 (+2.1%), Ethereum $3,948 (+3.1%), BNB $1,136 (+4.4%), and XRP $2.42 (+1.7%). Total crypto market cap rose 1.7% to $3.8T.

Why traders should care

Trade-war headlines drove a $19B liquidation event earlier this month; de-escalation now invites a relief rally. The Fear & Greed Index ticked up to 30 (still fear), an asymmetric setup where improving news can squeeze shorts faster. Equities are aligned (Dow +0.31%, Nasdaq +0.89%), reinforcing risk-on correlations.

Flows and positioning

CoinGlass shows crypto liquidations up 52% to $242M in 24h, mostly shorts—fuel for upside if headlines stay benign. Total open interest rose 3.2% to $153B, signaling fresh leverage. The average market RSI ~54 sits neutral: room to move both ways into macro prints.

Policy wild card: CZ pardon

Trump’s Oct. 23 pardon of Binance founder CZ is read as a pro-crypto signal that could ease regulatory overhangs on exchanges. That narrative can support liquidity and risk appetite, but policy paths remain uncertain—trade the reaction, not the headline.

Macro watch: CPI next

Consensus looks for 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y. A hotter print risks a USD/yield spike and crypto fade; a soft print favors a push toward $115,000 BTC. Expect knee-jerk volatility and widening spreads at release.

Key levels and setups

• BTC: Support $111,000; resistance $115,000. Break and hold above 115k targets momentum extensions; failure opens a retest of $105,000.
• ETH: Eyes $4,000 pivot; sustained bids above invite rotation into high-beta alts. Lose $3,850 and momentum stalls.
• XRP/BNB: Track relative strength vs. BTC on CPI—RS uptrends tend to lead post-data moves.
• Memecoins (e.g., SHIB, PEPE, BONK): Highly speculative and liquidity-sensitive; expect exaggerated wicks around data. Size small and use hard stops.

Actionable game plan

• Map scenarios before CPI: predefine entries, invalidation, and take-profit tiers for both hot and soft prints.
• Trim leverage: OI is elevated; whipsaws can cascade liquidations.
• Use staggered orders around $111k/$115k (BTC) and $3,850/$4,000 (ETH) to avoid slippage.
• Monitor basis/funding into the print—spiking funding with weak spot leads = fade risk.
• Keep risk per trade tight (0.5–1.0%); widen stops only if you’ve scaled down size.

Bottom line

Geopolitics just eased the brake, but CPI decides the throttle. Respect key levels, trade the reaction, and let positioning—not predictions—guide your size.

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