A wall of crypto options just rolled off and the tape is twitching: more than $5.6B in Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts expired on Deribit, resetting positioning and inviting fresh volatility. Flows were split on BTC and skewed constructive on ETH, but the absence of a systemic unwind doesn’t mean the danger has passed—post-expiry price discovery can be fast, thin, and punishing for over-levered traders.

What Just Happened

The largest crypto options venue, Deribit, cleared a massive expiry that concentrated gamma and open interest into today’s session. Traders were closely divided on Bitcoin direction while Ethereum carried a more bullish tilt. Analysts at Greeks.live flagged that bearish BTC put blocks reached 28% of volume in the last 24 hours, with about $1.15B flowing into puts. No broad-based liquidation cascade has been observed, but volatility around key levels is elevated. Market participants are watching BTC around $116–$118K and ETH near $4.1–$4.4K as reference zones cited into and after the roll-off.

Why It Matters to Traders

Options expiry often releases “synthetic” pinning pressure, allowing spot to move cleaner. Expect: - Potential IV crush if realized vol underperforms, or an IV re-bid if price breaks levels and realized vol spikes. - Shifts in skew as hedgers re-load; put demand can signal downside hedging, while call skew steepens on squeeze risk. - Rebalancing of dealer gamma that can amplify moves away from former max-pain zones.

Flows and Levels to Watch

• BTC: Traders eye $116–$118K as a decision band; acceptance above favors continuation, rejection invites mean reversion.
• ETH: $4.1–$4.4K cited as a pivotal support/resistance zone; rotation here can set the next leg.
• Skew: Elevated put flow (28% block volume) hints at protection demand; watch if skew normalizes post-expiry.
• Funding/basis: If perp funding stays positive while price stalls, a squeeze risk flips into long liquidation risk.
• Timing: First hours post-expiry and the US cash open often see the strongest directional tests.

Actionable Game Plan (Next 48–72h)

• Trade the levels, not the noise: Fade wicks into the cited zones only with tight invalidation; chase breakouts only on acceptance and retests.
• Exploit IV shifts: If IV deflates, consider debit call spreads on ETH or put spreads on BTC for defined risk exposure; if IV re-bids, prefer credit spreads with strict risk limits.
• Hedge leverage: Use short-dated puts or collars to cap downside while keeping upside optionality.
• Stagger entries: Scale into positions in thirds to reduce slippage and trap risk during whipsaws.
• Monitor dealer positioning: Watch gamma/oi heatmaps from Deribit dashboards and skew from Greeks.live for confirmation.

Risk Controls

• Hard stops beyond structure (not dollar-based); cancel if structure invalidates.
• Position sizing: Size options by max loss; size perps by volatility-adjusted ATR, not conviction.
• Event awareness: Check the macro calendar; a quiet tape can change rapidly with data prints.
• No revenge trades: One clean setup beats three forced swings in a post-expiry chop.

Bottom Line

The expiry removed a major options gravity well. If spot accepts above resistance, ETH’s constructive bias can extend; if BTC fails at the $116–$118K area, expect a fast mean reversion. Let the market tip its hand, then execute with defined risk—post-expiry moves reward disciplined traders who respect volatility.

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