Bitcoin has gone eerily quiet after four straight low-volatility weekends, but that calm is masking a pressure build. With price coiling between $114,700–$116,600 and no fresh CME gaps, traders are eyeing a potential expansion move triggered by this week’s macro catalysts. The battleground is clear: reclaim $118,000 and unlock the path to $123,000—or lose $114,700 and risk a liquidity sweep toward $112,500. Here’s the playbook top analysts are watching—and how to trade it with discipline.

What the chart says

Analyst Donald Dean sees BTC retesting its breakout right at a descending trendline and near a volume shelf—a classic setup where support can convert into a springboard. A clean push and hold through $123,000 opens the next target near the $131,000 Golden Ratio. Fail that retest, and the market likely drifts into deeper consolidation.

Order flow and range dynamics

JDK Analysis flags a cautious tone: aggressive selling in CVD and declining open interest (longs unwinding), while price stays stable—typical of distribution rather than accumulation. The range $114,700–$116,600 is the balance. Resistance clusters near $118,000 at a golden pocket and point of control; supports sit at $113,500 and $112,500.

Key levels to watch

• $112,000: Extremes to watch per short-term traders; possible liquidity sweep zone.
• $113,500–$112,500: Primary demand; failure here invites a deeper pullback.
• $114,700–$116,600: Balance range; acceptance/ rejection defines next impulse.
• $118,000: Confluence resistance (golden pocket + POC); first upside gate.
• $123,000: Breakout confirmation; clears runway to trend continuation.
• $131,000: Golden Ratio extension; next major upside objective.

Actionable setups

• Range trade: Fade extremes inside $114,700–$116,600 with tight stops; take profits mid-range.
• Breakout-retest long: Wait for acceptance above $118,000, retest/hold, then target $123,000; partials at resistance.
• Momentum continuation: Acceptance above $123,000 targets $127,000–$131,000; invalidate on loss of $118,000.
• Breakdown short: Loss of $114,700 with rising sell CVD/volume targets $113,500 → $112,500; invalidate on swift reclaim of $115,000.
• Event-driven vol: Consider limited-risk options (e.g., long straddle) into catalysts; exit on IV crush post-release.

Risk management essentials

Define invalidation before entry and size down into uncertainty. Track CVD and open interest to confirm aggression behind moves. Use alerts at $114,700, $118,000, and $123,000. Avoid chasing wicks into known liquidity pockets; let price accept levels first.

Macro catalysts this week

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE (Sep 26), plus multiple Fed speakers (including Chair Powell), can jar BTC from its tight range. Hotter PCE could lift yields and the dollar—typically a headwind for risk assets. A cooler print may favor a risk-on impulse. Expect volatility around the release window.

Bottom line

BTC sits at a make-or-break juncture: $118,000 is the first door to the upside; $123,000 confirms trend continuation toward $131,000. Lose $114,700 and the path of least resistance likely shifts to $113,500–$112,500. Have your levels, plan your invalidations, and let the market come to you.

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