When the market went quiet, two of Wall Street’s heaviest hitters just got louder. On October 23, 2025—amid thinning volumes and a 25-day U.S. government shutdown—BlackRock and Fidelity absorbed $90.6M of spot Bitcoin via their ETFs, with no BTC ETF outflows reported that day. Quiet accumulation in a low-liquidity tape is a tell—especially when it comes from the largest asset managers.

What Just Happened

Farside data shows the entire day’s BTC ETF net inflow came from two funds: Fidelity’s FBTC added $57.92M and BlackRock’s IBIT added $32.68M. Overall BTC ETF trading value fell to $3.34B, while BTC ETF net assets reached $149.96B—about 6.78% of Bitcoin’s market cap. Bitcoin traded near $111,570 (+0.35% 24h) with volume down 19.32% to $40.42B.

Why It Matters to Traders

Concentrated inflows during a volume slump can create a supportive demand floor and sharpen upward skew when liquidity is thin. The rising share of BTC held via ETFs means flows increasingly drive price—a shift from crypto-native order flow to TradFi-driven allocation cycles. With no outflows on the day, the balance of passive demand quietly favored upside, even as headline activity cooled.

Cross-Asset Read: Ethereum Diverges

ETH ETFs posted $93.6M in net outflows the same day. BlackRock’s ETHA saw $100.99M out, partially offset by $7.40M into Grayscale ETH. ETH ETF trading value fell to $1.41B, with ETF net assets at $26.39B (~5.55% of ETH’s market cap). ETH traded around $3,941.92 (-0.53% 24h); volume dropped 29.21% to $26.57B. This BTC bid vs. ETH offer signals a potential rotation back to BTC dominance—a key relative-value cue.

Macro and Liquidity Context

With the U.S. government shutdown at 25 days and 79% of traders (Myriad) expecting it to continue into November, uncertainty is curbing risk appetite and suppressing volumes. In such tapes, ETF flow prints can have outsized impact versus typical on-chain or perp signals.

Actionable Playbook

• Track daily BTC ETF flows (focus on IBIT and FBTC). A multi-day streak of net inflows during falling volumes often precedes range breakouts.
• Watch BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance). Rising dominance alongside ETH ETF outflows favors BTC-over-ETH relative positioning.
• Intraday: monitor ETF premium/discount, spot-perp basis, and funding. Positive basis with stable funding suggests spot-led demand, not leverage froth.
• Risk-manage via event volatility: with policy uncertainty, use defined-risk structures (options spreads) or tight invalidation levels below recent higher lows.
• If ETH outflows persist, look for dispersion trades: long BTC vs. selective ETH beta shorts—only with strict sizing and stops.

Risks and Invalidation

• A sudden flip to BTC ETF outflows nullifies the demand-floor thesis.
• Liquidity air pockets: low ETF trading value ($3.34B) amplifies slippage on adverse moves.
• Policy shocks tied to the shutdown could spike volatility and widen spreads; avoid overleverage.

Bottom Line

BlackRock and Fidelity’s $90.6M of net BTC ETF buys—without competing outflows—are a subtle but meaningful tailwind in a thin market. Until the flow regime changes, the path of least resistance tilts toward BTC strength vs. ETH, with ETF prints as your primary compass.

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