Bitcoin’s most treacherous month might be setting up its most lucrative Q4. Fresh data from Bitfinex Alpha suggests September often prints a cyclical low in post-halving years—just as BTC sits roughly 13% off its $123,640 ATH and slides into a dense cost-basis cluster. With price probing the $110K area and filling a prior gap created by a fast rally, traders face a pivotal question: is this the last dip before the final leg up—or the start of a deeper unwind?

What’s Happening

BTC dipped below $110,000 and even under the January 2025 high at $109,590, placing price back into a region where supply is tightly packed. Bitfinex notes that pullbacks from cycle highs average around 17% before new ATHs eventually form—BTC is already down about 13%, suggesting limited but nontrivial downside remains. The Cost Basis Distribution heatmap highlights a thick support/resistance band between $93K–$110K, now being retested as the market “fills” a prior low-supply gap. A deeper correction likely needs either an acute wave of selling or a prolonged demand pause.

Why It Matters to Traders

In prior post-halving cycles, September often sets the low that precedes strong Q4 rallies—moves that can mark the final surge of a bull cycle before distribution begins. That means the next few weeks could define risk/reward for the rest of the year: nail the decision-making now, and you position ahead of a potential final leg up; get it wrong, and you’ll be caught in an extended drawdown.

Key Levels and Probabilities

• $123,640: Cycle ATH and major resistance.
• $110K–$112K: Breakdown area; reclaim implies buyers back in control.
• $109,590: Prior key high; acceptance above tilts bullish.
• $102K–$103K: Approx. average 17% pullback zone from ATH.
• $93K–$100K: Dense cost-basis support; losing this opens a deeper leg.

Actionable Setups to Consider

• Mean-reversion plan: Ladder bids within $105K–$98K toward the 17% pullback zone; invalidate on decisive daily close below $93K.
• Momentum plan: Wait for a daily close back above $110K–$112K with rising spot volume and cooling funding before re-risking.
• Risk management: Reduce altcoin beta until BTC stabilizes; keep position sizes smaller near major levels and widen stops in high volatility.
• Hedge: Consider protective puts or partial delta hedges if heavily long and BTC closes below $109,590.

Altcoins: Beta Cuts Both Ways

Altcoins have weakened as BTC retraced. ETH hit an ATH, then rolled over despite institutional accumulation and ETF support—reminding traders that in high-vol regimes, beta accelerates losses. Expect cleaner alt outperformance only after BTC volatility compresses or BTC reclaims and holds key levels. Watch BTC.D (dominance) and ETF flows to time rotation.

Signals to Watch for Confirmation

• CBD heatmap: Sustained bids defending $93K–$110K.
• Funding/basis: Neutral to mildly negative with rising spot-led buying indicates healthier demand.
• Open interest: Washouts followed by rebuilds on spot-led rallies are constructive.
• ETF flows: Positive net inflows reinforcing any $110K reclaim.
• Liquidity gap: Full gap fill with swift rejection higher suggests seller exhaustion.

Bottom Line

Bitfinex Alpha’s read: we’re likely in the late stages of a correction, with a historically significant September window that often precedes Q4 rallies. Respect the possibility of a final flush toward $102K and build a two-sided plan—either buy the dip into cost-basis support with firm invalidation, or ride momentum on a decisive reclaim of $110K–$112K.

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