Is Bitcoin quietly passing the torch from “smart money” to late buyers? Fresh Wyckoff distribution signals, a bearish RSI divergence, and looming macro catalysts are converging at once—setting up a decisive battle around the mid‑$90Ks that could define the next leg. Whether price defends support or slips into markdown, traders who prep their levels, signals, and risk now will have the edge.

Wyckoff Distribution: What the Market Is Signaling

After a strong uptrend, the market appears to be entering distribution—a phase where larger players gradually sell to the public. Hallmarks include weakening upside momentum, failure to make new highs, and increased volume on down moves. The standout tell: a bearish RSI divergence (price makes a higher high while RSI prints a lower high), hinting that buying power is fading beneath the surface.

Why This Matters to Traders

Distribution phases often resolve into markdown, marked by faster, more emotional declines. That transition can produce false breakouts, liquidity traps, and sharp wicks—conditions that punish overexposed and overleveraged positions. Being early with a plan lets you capitalize on two-sided volatility instead of reacting to it.

Key Levels and Catalysts

The $92,000–$95,000 zone is the pivotal support. A strong reaction here can fuel a bounce or consolidation; a decisive break risks a deeper slide. On the other side, the CME futures gap near $117,000 remains a medium-term “magnet” that price often gravitates to over time. Macro-wise, the upcoming U.S. CPI print can swing risk sentiment and liquidity; hotter inflation readings typically pressure risk assets.

How to Trade the Setup—One Practical Playbook

• Map the battleground: Mark $95K, $92K, and the $117K CME gap. Identify your last confirmed swing high/low for invalidation.
• Wait for confirmation: On 4H/1D, look for RSI reclaiming 50 with bullish structure for longs, or RSI rejection under 50 plus lower highs for shorts.
• Trade reactions, not predictions: Use conditional orders at levels after the first reaction (SFPs, retests) rather than blind limits.
• Size for volatility: Keep leverage modest; set hard stops beyond structure, not on round numbers where liquidity hunts cluster.
• Hedge event risk: Reduce exposure or use options around CPI to soften gap risk and slippage.
• Have invalidations: If price closes back above the recent high with RSI confirming, treat distribution as failed and stand aside or rotate bias.

Scenarios to Prep For

- Bounce from $92–95K: Expect mean reversion and range-building; target mid-range, then reassess momentum for continuation or fade. - Clean break below $92K: Momentum likely accelerates; avoid catching knives—wait for a base, a reclaim, or a clear bullish divergence. - Macro squeeze: A positive CPI surprise or liquidity influx can negate distribution short-term and re-aim flows toward the $117K gap.

Bottom Line

The market is flashing caution with Wyckoff distribution traits and RSI divergence as Bitcoin approaches a critical $92–95K test. Plan your reactions, define invalidations, and let the market confirm direction—your risk discipline will decide your PnL more than your prediction.

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