Bitcoin has held above the psychological $100,000 mark for months — but a powerful shift is flashing beneath the surface: the “granddaddy” of volume metrics, On-Balance Volume (OBV), just broke down to its lowest level since April. When volume trends crack before price, it often means price is next. If you’re long because “the range keeps holding,” this is your reminder that ranges break — and OBV often points to the direction.

What just changed

OBV has slipped below its recent range, hitting levels last seen when BTC traded near $94,000. At the same time, BTC sits below its 50-day SMA and is testing key support around $107,300. The weekly MACD histogram is printing deeper bars below zero, signaling strengthening downside momentum. Taken together: demand is fading while momentum turns negative — a combo that frequently precedes range resolution lower.

Why this matters to traders

- Volume leads price: A falling OBV during sideways price action suggests distribution — smart money selling into strength. - Momentum confirms: Bearish MACD on higher timeframes increases probability of follow-through. - Trend filter: Trading below the 50-day SMA puts tactical bias on defense until reclaimed.

Key levels to watch

• $107,300: Immediate support; a decisive break exposes the range floor.
• $100,000: Psychological anchor; loss invites accelerated selling/liquidity gaps.
• $99,225: June 22 low; next major downside magnet if $100K fails.
• 50-day SMA: First major level bulls must reclaim to shift short-term trend.

Actionable trading ideas

• Break–retest short: If $107,300 breaks on rising volume and OBV keeps bleeding, consider shorting the retest toward $100K, then $99,225. Invalidation: back above the failed-break high or the 50-day SMA.
• Fade the panic (only if confirmed): If price wicks below $100K but OBV diverges higher and buyers reclaim $100K intraday, a tactical long into the 50-day SMA can be viable. Keep stops tight.
• Portfolio defense: Trim high-beta exposure, avoid fresh high-leverage longs into support, and consider hedges (short-dated puts or futures) until the 50-day SMA is reclaimed and OBV stabilizes.
• Execution hygiene: Use limit orders near liquidity pockets; set alerts at $107,300, $100K, and the 50-day SMA.

Risk and invalidation

OBV signals can whipsaw in choppy ranges. A swift reclaim of the 50-day SMA with improving OBV would neutralize the bearish case and open a squeeze toward prior range highs. Stay flexible: let the level — not the narrative — decide.

Bottom line

Price has been calm above $100K, but the tape says demand is thinning. Respect $107,300, prepare for a potential break of $100K, and let OBV and the 50-day SMA guide your bias and risk.

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