Bitcoin just snapped a long-running downtrend and is coiling near $112,000, but the real battle sits slightly higher: the $114,000–$118,000 window that could decide whether bulls drive a push toward $124,000–$126,000 or bears drag price back under $110,000. With the 20‑week MA pressing from above and CPI risk on deck, liquidity is clustering at obvious highs and lows—one clean break or failed retest may be the market’s next big tell.

What just happened

Bitcoin broke a major descending trendline from the $126,000 peak and is consolidating in a tightening structure with an immediate pivot around $112,056. The breakout aligns with Fibonacci retracements: the 0.382 near $114,000 now acts as interim support, while the 0.618 around $118,000 is the next resistance. Analyst Kamran Asghar notes bulls are aggressively absorbing sell waves—enough to cap deeper downside attempts for now.

Why it matters to traders

Analyst Michael van de Poppe highlights that price is still wrestling below the 20‑week MA (~$112K), a level that often filters trend direction. Rejections here have repeatedly forced pullbacks. Overhead, supply thickens at $114,755–$116,813 and $119,504, with the prior high at $123,288 looming. On the downside, supports include $111,918 and a deeper demand zone at $103,190–$104,000, where August selloffs saw notable volume spikes.

Two scenarios to prepare for

• Bullish continuation: Acceptance above $114,000 with rising volume and a 4H close through $118,000 opens $119,504 and potentially a probe into $124,000–$126,000. Invalidation: sustained loss of $114,000 after breakout, or a 4H close back under $112,000.
• Bearish rejection: Rejection inside $114,755–$116,813 or at $118,000 favors a rotation to $112,000 and possibly $108,000–$110,000. A break of $111,918 increases odds of a liquidity sweep into $103,190–$104,000 demand. Invalidation: strong reclaim of $116,800–$118,000 with momentum.

Key levels and triggers

• $112,056: immediate pivot; watch for acceptance above on 4H.
• $114,000: 0.382 Fib; support-turned-pivot for momentum.
• $114,755–$116,813: supply; fade wicks, respect strong closes through.
• $118,000: 0.618 Fib; breakout confirmation zone.
• $119,504: next resistance; above it, eyes toward $123,288.
• $111,918: near-term support; failure invites deeper test.
• $108,000–$110,000 and $103,190–$104,000: downside magnets if support breaks.

Risk management in a CPI week

Macro prints can scramble order books. Consider reducing size into events, and let confirmation—not anticipation—do the heavy lifting. Liquidity hunts around prior highs/lows remain active; expect stop runs before direction sets.

• Trade smaller and widen stops modestly around data; scale after trend confirms.
• Use stop‑limits beyond clear liquidity pools rather than at them.
• Track 4H closes and volume profile shifts at $114K and $118K.
• Monitor funding and open interest for signs of crowded positioning.

Actionable takeaway

Treat $114,000–$118,000 as the battleground. A 4H close above $118,000 with expanding volume favors continuation into $119.5K then $124K–$126K. Conversely, a sharp rejection within $114.8K–$116.8K that forces price back below $112K tilts risk toward $108K and possibly the $103K–$104K demand. Let the level do the talking.

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