Bitcoin ripped to a fresh November high near $111K into the weekly close — but can this latest Sunday pump survive Monday’s liquidity and macro reality? With key support still unreclaimed, whales distributing, and mixed order-book signals on major exchanges, the next 24–72 hours could decide whether this move extends or unwinds.

What just happened

BTC spiked to about $111,129 on stronger weekend bids across Coinbase and Binance. Yet the rally stalled below critical confirmation zones, with intraday flows showing bouts of sell pressure during U.S. sessions. On-chain, a notable whale wallet offloaded roughly $650M since October’s peak — consistent with distribution into strength.

Why this matters now

Weekend impulses often fade when traditional markets reopen and depth normalizes. If BTC can’t reclaim and hold key levels with volume and acceptance, a deeper pullback is likely. Conversely, a clean reclaim turns weekend momentum into structured trend continuation.

Levels that matter

• $112,000: Reclaim and hold as support with rising volume for sustained upside.
• 21-week EMA (~$111,230): Weekly close back above = trend repair; repeated rejections = risk of lower highs.
• $113K–$114K: Probable weekend/Monday liquidity tags; beware wick-and-fade behavior.
• $100,000 (38.2% Fib area): Monthly close below would warn the rally may be over for now.

Order flow and on-chain tells

Order books show visible bids on Binance/Coinbase, but CVD and session flows flag caution: U.S. hours leaned sell-side recently. Ongoing whale distribution adds overhead supply and can cap bounces unless absorbed by stronger institutional participation.

Actionable playbook (not financial advice)

• Trade the reclaim: Look for a 4H close and retest above $112K with rising volume and positive CVD. If accepted, a pro-cyclical add with tight invalidation just below the reclaimed level can keep risk defined.
• Fade the fade: If Monday cash session loses $111K–$112K and delta turns negative, stalk lower-high entries targeting $108K–$105K. Keep stops hard — weekend levels break fast.
• Hedge exposure: For longs, consider short-dated puts or collars into the weekly close/Monday open to neutralize gap risk.
• Set alerts: $111,230 (21W EMA), $112,000 (support), $113.5K (liquidity). Monitor funding, open interest, and spot-CVD divergence.

Scenarios to watch into the weekly/monthly close

• Bull continuation: Weekly close back above the 21W EMA + acceptance of $112K can pull price into $114K–$116K.
• Mean reversion: Rejection at the EMA with accelerating whale outflows = sweep to $108K–$105K; above $100K the higher-timeframe uptrend stays viable.
• Breakdown risk: Monthly close below the 38.2% Fib (~$100K) would warn of a completed leg up and open risk of a broader retrace.

Bottom line

Weekend strength without confirmed support is fragile. Let the market prove it: prioritize reclaims, volume, and acceptance over hope, and protect capital if Monday flows flip risk-off.

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