Markets are tiptoeing into an inflation-heavy week with Bitcoin hovering near the mid-$118K zone and ETH above $4.1K—but the next data prints could flip risk appetite in minutes. With CPI, PPI, and retail sales on deck, plus ETF tailwinds and sticky rates, traders face a classic “good news can be bad news” setup. Here’s how to read the tape—and act with precision.

What’s Moving the Market This Week

The June CPI beat was driven by housing (+0.2% m/m) and energy (+1%), with early tariff effects showing up in household goods. July’s CPI refines that picture and guides the Fed’s rate-cut path into September. Thursday’s PPI leads the all-important PCE, and Friday’s retail sales will reset growth sentiment after May’s dip and a rebound. Strong prints can lift equities—but also keep the Fed hawkish, a headwind for crypto beta.

Why This Matters to Traders

- If CPI cools or meets estimates: risk assets can catch a bid, especially if PPI and retail sales don’t reheat inflation impulse. - If CPI runs hot: expect a volatility spike, wider spreads, and a crypto de-risking wave. - If retail sales are strong: stocks may pop, but it can delay cuts—tempering crypto follow-through. - If data is weak: recession jitters can pressure both equities and crypto after an initial knee-jerk.

Levels and Flows to Watch

BTC needs to hold above $118,500 to avoid near-term momentum loss. A slip into $116,400–$115,800 is the first high-probability support zone where liquidity hunts and stop cascades may trigger. Monday’s lighter news flow often means thinner liquidity—expect wicks. For altcoins, watch ETHBTC: if BTC softens while ETH holds relative strength, capital rotation into majors and then mid-caps can ignite an alt rally.

Your Action Plan (Execution Over Opinions)

• Set alerts: BTC $118,500 (reclaim/lose), $116,400–$115,800 (reaction). Monitor ETHBTC for rotation cues.
• Reduce leverage into data releases; widen stops or go flat into prints to avoid slippage and liquidation cascades.
• Trade the second move: wait for the post-data whipsaw, then follow the direction on retest/reclaim.
• If CPI is benign and ETHBTC trends up, favor high-liquidity majors first; rotate to strong L1/L2 names only after confirmation.
• If CPI is hot, look for failed bounces into $118,500 to fade with tight risk; respect the $115,800 invalidation.
• Use limit orders around key levels; avoid chasing breakouts during widened spreads.

Risk Management First

Volatility around macro prints expands spreads and reduces depth. Position sizing, pre-defined invalidation, and patience around retests are your edge. Remember: the first move is often liquidity-driven; the sustained move follows.

One Takeaway

Let the data lead the trade. A BTC reclaim and hold above $118,500 with a firm ETHBTC backdrop opens momentum; a loss of $115,800 invites broader de-risking. Your job is not to predict the print—it’s to execute the reaction.

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