Bitcoin’s post-crash behavior is not just a bounce—it's a message. After the 10/11 flash selloff, spot prices reclaimed and held the psychologically critical six-figure zone while on-chain signals quietly reset. If you’ve been waiting for confirmation that the fever broke without killing the trend, the data now hint that the capitulation may have built a stronger floor than most expected.

What’s happening now

CoinEx Global reports that Bitcoin is showing early recovery signs after the 10/11 crash, with price action maintaining support above $100,000. On-chain, leverage has been flushed: futures open interest leverage dropped sharply, reducing the likelihood of cascading liquidations. The share of BTC supply in profit cooled from 98% to roughly 78%—a healthier base historically associated with renewed uptrends.

Fresh spot demand appeared around the $108,000 area, indicating accumulation during stress. Meanwhile, resistance looms near $118,000, with a potential retest of the $126,000 all-time high if buyers sustain pressure. CryptoQuant data also shows sustained negative BTC Netflow to Binance (SMA30), signaling reduced exchange selling pressure and growing holder confidence.

Macro tailwinds traders can’t ignore

CoinEx highlights two supportive shifts: easing U.S.–China trade tensions tied to the re-enactment of the TACO policy under President Donald Trump, and fresh monetary easing momentum from Japan’s new leadership inspired by Abenomics. Together, these dynamics can lift global liquidity and risk appetite—conditions that historically favor Bitcoin’s upside.

Why this matters

- Less leverage means cleaner trend signals and fewer forced moves. - The $108K accumulation cluster may evolve into a demand shelf. - Exchange outflows and lower profit saturation reduce near-term sell incentives. - Macro easing improves the probability that dips attract capital instead of panic.

Key levels and scenarios

• Support: $108,000 (accumulation zone), then $103,000–$105,000. A daily close below $103,000 risks reopening the range toward $100,000.
• Pivot: $113,500–$115,000 intraday supply. Acceptance above strengthens the case for a push.
• Resistance: $118,000. Clear breakout + retest flips focus to $121,500 and the $126,000 ATH.
• Invalidation: Loss of $108,000 with rising OI and positive funding would hint at a bull trap.

Actionable game plan

• Accumulate on structure: Stagger bids near $108K–$110K only if funding is neutral-to-negative and OI is stable/down. Place invalidation below $103K.
• Trade the breakout: Wait for a 4H or daily close above $118K, then target a retest for entry. Invalidate on a failed reclaim back into the prior range.
• Monitor flows: Keep an eye on Binance BTC Netflow (SMA30). Continued negative netflow supports spot-led rallies.
• Risk controls: Cap position size; use stop-losses below local structure. Avoid adding risk into weekend illiquidity.

Risks that could break the setup

• Sharp rebound in exchange inflows or a spike in highly leveraged longs (rising OI + positive funding), raising squeeze risk.
• Macro disappointment: reversal on trade policy, hawkish surprises, or yen volatility forcing de-risking.
• Liquidity pockets: gapy order books around key levels can exaggerate moves and invalidate signals.

Metrics to watch this week

• Futures OI and funding rate across major venues
• Exchange netflows (especially Binance, SMA30)
• % Supply in Profit and SOPR for signs of profit-taking pressure
• Realized price distribution around $108K–$118K
• DXY and U.S. 10Y yields for cross-asset risk tone

Bottom line

The crash acted as a reset: leverage washed out, fresh bids appeared at $108K, and macro currents are supportive. Above $108K, bulls have the initiative; above $118K, momentum traders likely return. Stay data-led, respect invalidations, and let the market confirm the next leg.

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