Bitcoin is coiling inside a tight equilibrium that’s testing trader patience—and the next impulse likely hinges on whether price can reclaim the 100-day MA (~$114K) or lose the 200-day MA (~$109K). With macro winds turning friendlier after the Fed’s rate cut and U.S.–China alignment, volatility compression here is setting the stage for a sharp move toward either $120K–$122K or a liquidity sweep into $102K–$104K.

The Setup: 100-day vs 200-day Standoff

Bitcoin has been oscillating between the 100-day MA (~$114K) and the 200-day MA (~$109K). Rebounds from $108K–$109K show consistent demand, while the $114K–$116K band keeps capping rallies. On the 4-hour chart, the range is tightening inside an ascending structure—classic volatility compression before expansion.

Why It Matters Now

Macro has eased: a dovish Fed and improved U.S.–China coordination support risk assets. Yet on-chain, active addresses have cooled—signaling fatigue—but remain above the 2024 accumulation baseline. Translation: there’s room for a continuation if price holds support and participation stabilizes.

Key Levels and Triggers

• Bullish confirmation: Daily close above the 100-day MA (~$114K) opens $120K–$122K. Watch for rising volume and a strong 4H retest of $114K–$115K flipping to support.
• Bearish confirmation: Clean break and 4H acceptance below $108K exposes $104K–$102K liquidity. Failed bounces into $109K–$110K would favor continuation lower.
• Range reactions: Until a breach, expect oscillation between $108K–$109K and $115K–$116K with fading volatility.

Actionable Trade Plan

• Breakout approach: Set alerts at $114K and $116K. If daily closes above 100DMA with volume, consider scaling in on a retest; partial takes near $118.5K–$120K; trailing stops below reclaimed levels.
• Breakdown approach: If 4H accepts below $108K, look for failed retests into $109K–$110K; targets $104K–$102K; invalidate above the reclaimed 200DMA.
• Range strategy (advanced): Buy dips near $108.5K–$109K, sell rips into $115K–$116K, tight stops, reduced size due to fakeout risk.

Confirmations to Watch

• Volume and Open Interest: Expansion on the break, not just price.
• Funding and Basis: Avoid crowded one-sided leverage; spot leading perps is healthier.
• On-chain: Stabilizing or rising active addresses while price holds $108K–$110K supports the accumulation thesis.

Risks and Invalidation

• Fakeouts: Wicks beyond $116K or below $108K without acceptance—wait for candle closes and retests.
• Headline risk: Sudden macro/geopolitical shifts can break the range violently—use stops.
• Liquidity pockets: Weekends and off-hours can exaggerate moves—adjust position size.

Bottom Line

This is a trigger-driven market. Respect the $114K and $108K gates, trade the acceptance, and let the next expansion do the heavy lifting. No need to predict—prepare, confirm, execute.

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