Bitcoin’s most uncanny timer just flashed: exactly 1064 days since the bear-market low—historically the point where prior cycles peaked—just as U.S. inflation data and a pivotal Federal Reserve rate decision arrive, and U.S.–China trade tensions rattle risk assets. With **Bitcoin** hovering above its **200-day moving average** and eyeing a critical **61.8% Fibonacci extension**, traders face a high-conviction, high-volatility setup where execution matters more than opinions.

Why the 1064-Day Marker Matters

In the past two cycles, Bitcoin peaked precisely **1064 days** after the bear-market bottom. From the **November 2022** low, analysts note BTC has already registered a new all-time high near the same window, raising odds this month could mark a **cycle inflection**. But cycles are guides—not guarantees. Use them to frame probability, then validate with **on-chain flows, funding, options skew**, and price structure.

Key Levels on Bitcoin

BTC is trading above the **200DMA**—holding that level into the weekly close supports trend continuation. The next magnet is **110,000–111,000**, a confluence of the **61.8% extension** and prior **support/resistance**. - A clean break-and-hold above 111k opens room toward **118k–126k**. - A rejection and close back below 111k increases risk of a **mean reversion** toward the 200DMA and prior range highs. Define an **invalidation** (e.g., loss of the 200DMA on a daily close) and size accordingly.

Macro Catalysts: CPI, Fed, and the Dollar

This week’s **CPI** and **Fed** decision are binary-volatility events: - Hot CPI / hawkish Fed: stronger **DXY** and **Treasury yields** can pressure BTC and alts. - Soft CPI / dovish tone: tailwind for risk, favors upside continuation. Watch **options IV** into the print—event vol tends to peak pre-release and decay after; consider hedges if you’re long delta into the number.

U.S.–China Trade Tensions and Crypto Beta

NVIDIA’s stalled China business amid tariffs and restrictions underscores a broader slowdown: Chinese exports to the U.S. fell **18% YoY** in the first nine months of 2025 and are down **29%** since 2022. Small parcel shipments dropped **50%**, and LCD TV exports plunged **73%** last quarter. Fragile **global growth** and choppy **semiconductor equities** can amplify crypto’s beta—expect correlated swings and use **equities futures, DXY, and yields** as risk barometers intraday.

Alt Watch: LINK and ETH

Analysts flagged a rise in **Chainlink reserves**, with **LINK** around **$17.47** (+1.2% today). Rising reserves can imply **accumulation** but also potential **supply overhang**—track **exchange inflows/outflows** for confirmation. For **Ethereum**, momentum watchers see room for **higher peaks**; the clean trigger is a **weekly close** above recent local highs and strength in **ETH/BTC**. Rotation from BTC into high-quality majors usually follows sustained BTC dominance pauses.

Actionable Checklist for the Week

• Mark the CPI and FOMC timestamps; reduce leverage into the print and re-risk after the first 15–30 minutes of price discovery.
• For BTC: watch 111k. Break-and-hold = momentum add; failure = trim, target 200DMA retest.
• Set explicit invalidation levels and stick to them; widen stops slightly to avoid event whipsaw.
• Consider short-dated **puts** or a **collar** to hedge long spot exposure into CPI/Fed.
• Monitor **funding rates**, **open interest**, and **perp basis**; elevated leverage plus rising IV = liquidation risk.
• Track **DXY** above/below recent highs as a risk-on/off toggle; watch the **10Y yield** for pressure on crypto multiples.
• For LINK/ETH: confirm with **on-chain exchange flows** and **ETH/BTC** trend before adding.

Risk Management First

Cycle symmetry can fail, and macro can overwhelm technicals. Protect capital with **position sizing**, **hedges**, and **if–then** plans around the 111k pivot and the 200DMA. In fast markets, survival is alpha.

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