Bitcoin is once again knocking on the same ceiling—and this time, sellers are defending $110,700 with precision. Multiple rejections at that level hint at a market deciding whether to rip higher or air-pocket under $100,000. With price hovering near $111,000, on-chain signals and recent volatility suggest a binary setup: breakout confirmation versus a liquidity sweep into the $107,200–$103,000 demand band.

Price Squeezed at $110.7K Resistance

Repeated wicks into the upper boundary of a descending channel around $110,700 indicate firm supply. That’s classic “seller absorption” and raises probabilities of a near-term retest of $107,200 or even $103,000 if momentum stalls. If bulls want continuation, they need a decisive close back above the channel top—ideally on rising volume.

Whales Are Lightening Up — Why That Matters

On-chain data shows a steady decline in average BTC holdings per whale (around 488 BTC, last seen in late 2018). Translation: large holders are distributing into strength. Redistribution to smaller wallets can stabilize over time, but in the short run it can leave the bid fragile if retail demand cools. Without fresh whale accumulation, pullbacks tend to travel farther and faster—especially around psychological levels like $100,000.

Context From Past Bull-Market Pullbacks

Despite the headlines, the current drawdown from the $123,000 ATH sits near 12%—well within historical bull-market pullback ranges of 20%–25%. That context matters: a dip into $107,200–$103,000 can be a “normal” reset rather than a trend break, provided higher-timeframe structure (weekly) holds and buyers step back in.

Trading Plan: Levels, Triggers, and Risk

Use the key levels to define a simple, disciplined plan. Let price choose—and react with confirmation.

• Breakout trigger: 4H/D close above $110,700–$111,200 with expanding volume. Target the prior highs and liquidity above $115,000+. Invalidate if price falls back below the breakout level on weak volume.
• Fade the rejection: If rejections persist at $110,700, consider short setups with tight risk. First targets: $107,200 and $103,000. Invalidate on a strong reclaim and hold above $111,200.
• Buy-the-dip zone: Scale bids in the $107,200–$103,000 area where liquidity may pool. Predefine stops (e.g., below the local low you’re leaning against) to avoid a cascade toward $100,000.
• Confirm flows: Track funding, open interest, and spot vs. perp volume. A breakout with falling OI or negative basis is stronger; a bounce with rising OI and aggressive longs is more fragile.
• Position sizing: Keep size modest into binary levels; add only on confirmation. High-leverage entries near $110,700 are vulnerable to wick hunts.

Bottom Line

The market is telegraphing a simple message: $110,700 is the gate. Either BTC claims it with conviction and squeezes higher, or sellers push price back into the $107,200–$103,000 pocket where dip buyers will try to reset the trend. The most actionable edge today is patience—trade the confirmation, not the noise.

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