Bitcoin’s biggest buyers are suddenly in the red—and by a lot. New whale wallets are sitting on nearly $6.95B in unrealized losses as price trades near $110,000, below their average cost basis around $113,000. Yet behind the fear, whales are still accumulating tens of thousands of BTC. Is this the shakeout that precedes the next leg up—or a warning before deeper drawdowns?

What just happened

Bitcoin recovered to around $110,000, still ~13% below the recent $126,000 peak. According to CryptoQuant, new whales now hold about 45% of the total whale realized cap (up from under 20% earlier this year), but those who bought the highs are now underwater for the first time since late 2024.

On-chain flows show continued accumulation: more than 26,500 BTC recently moved into whale wallets. At the same time, Glassnode notes a ~30% drop in open interest and funding rates near neutral—signs of reduced leverage and a more balanced derivatives market.

Why this matters to traders

When new whales are underwater, their behavior can drive short-term volatility. If price stays below their cost basis, some may capitulate into weakness; if price reclaims and holds, it can trigger a powerful squeeze. Meanwhile, neutral funding and lighter leverage reduce the odds of disorderly liquidations—but also mean spot flows and ETF demand likely steer direction.

Translation: the next big move may be decided at a few critical levels as larger players quietly reposition.

Key levels and signals to watch

Analysts flag support at $107,000–$108,000. Holding that zone increases odds of a rebound toward the $113,000 cost basis and potentially $120,000–$126,000. A clean break below support raises risk of a swift test of the psychological $100,000 area.

On-chain and derivatives context: - Whale accumulation: inflows to large wallets suggest strategic positioning during fear. - Leverage reset: lower open interest and neutral funding can stabilize price discovery. - ETF influence: flows now matter more than retail sentiment, shaping trend persistence.

Actionable playbook

• Map your invalidation: for long bias, monitor a daily close below $107K; for breakout bias, look for a sustained reclaim of $113K (new whale cost basis) with rising spot volume.
• Let structure lead: if $108K holds, consider staggered entries with tight risk; if it fails, reduce exposure or hedge until price stabilizes near $100K.
• Track flows, not noise: watch ETF net flows, exchange balances, and whale wallet inflows; sustained positive spot demand can front-run trend continuations.
• Use the leverage reset: with funding near neutral, focus on spot-led moves; avoid over-leverage until open interest rebuilds alongside clear trend confirmation.
• Plan the squeeze: above $113K, trapped late buyers can fuel momentum; use trailing stops to capture upside without giving back gains.

The bottom line

Whales are bleeding on paper—but quietly buying. With leverage flushed and ETF flows in the driver’s seat, the market is primed for a range break. Trade the levels, respect your invalidation, and let spot demand tell the real story.

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