Whales are bleeding on paper while quietly buying more—an uncommon mix that often precedes sharp pivots. New Bitcoin whales are sitting on roughly $6.95B in unrealized losses with price near $110K, below their average entry around $113K. At the same time, about 26,500 BTC has moved into whale accumulation wallets, leverage has cooled, and funding turned neutral—setting the stage for measured, opportunistic trades.

What’s happening

Bitcoin trades ~13% below its recent ATH (~$126K). On-chain, “new whales” now control about 45% of the whale realized cap (up from <20% earlier this year), meaning a large cohort bought high and is now underwater. Despite pain, flows into accumulation wallets rose, suggesting large players are positioning into fear. Derivatives risk is down: open interest fell about 30% and funding rates are near neutral, indicating a more balanced market less driven by overheated leverage.

Why this matters to traders

- Underwater whales often create overhead supply at their breakeven ($113K–$116K), shaping resistance. - Accumulation into fear historically supports medium-term rebounds, but not without shakeouts. - Lower leverage and neutral funding typically reduce liquidation cascades, favoring range trading and spot accumulation strategies over aggressive momentum bets.

Key levels and triggers

- Support: $107K–$108K (holding opens a bounce toward $113K–$116K). - Failure of support: Breakdown could target the high-timeframe liquidity pocket near $100K. - Resistance: Prior whale cost basis and supply zone at $113K–$116K; acceptance above invites runs toward $119K–$121K.

Actionable trading plan

• Range-bounce setup: If $107K–$108K holds on a 4H close with funding ≤ 0 and flat/declining OI, consider a tactical long. Invalidation: clean 4H close below $107K. Targets: $113K, stretch to $116K.
• Breakdown setup: If $107K fails on rising OI and funding flips positive (shorts paying), consider a momentum short toward $101K–$102K. Invalidation: swift reclaim of $108K.
• Spot DCA: While funding is neutral and OI depressed, gradual buys can capture mean reversion. Pause DCA if whale accumulation reverses (net outflows from whale wallets) or ETF flows turn decisively negative.

Data to monitor daily

• Whale wallet flows (accumulation vs. distribution) and the share of realized cap owned by new whales.
• ETF net flows: sustained inflows support dips; persistent outflows weaken bounces.
• Derivatives posture: OI trend, funding, and liquidations to gauge the likelihood of squeezes.
• Spot vs. perp basis: spot-led rallies are healthier; perp-led spikes are prone to fade.

Risk management in this regime

Volatility around $107K–$108K can produce wicks; use hard invalidations and smaller size near the edges. Expect supply reactions at $113K–$116K from breakeven-selling whales. If macro risk or ETF outflows accelerate, respect the $100K magnet.

Bottom line

Whales are underwater but accumulating, leverage is lighter, and the market is balanced enough for disciplined range trades. Respect the levels, track whale flow and ETF data, and let confirmations—not narratives—dictate entries.

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