Bitcoin is knocking on the door of a critical inflection zone, coiling just beneath $113.4K after a four-day climb. The price keeps getting swatted back by the 4H 200MA/EMA—a classic sign of suppressed momentum—yet liquidity overhead is building. The question now isn’t just whether BTC can tag $115.8K, but whether it can secure a clean break-and-hold above the ceiling that has repeatedly rejected it.

What’s Happening Now

BTC trades near $112.3K, with buyers stepping in on dips but failing to claim the 4H trend. Multiple rejections at the 4H 200MA/EMA underscore a fragile short-term structure. The immediate battleground: $113.4K resistance versus the $107K support cluster (also aligned with the Daily 200MA/EMA). A decisive move on either side likely sets the next multi-thousand-dollar leg.

Why This Level Matters

The $113.4K area is a confluence of technical resistance and resting liquidity. A 4H close above—and ideally a successful retest—would flip the short- to mid-term trend, exposing $115.8K and potentially higher liquidity pockets. Failure here risks a momentum fade, dragging price back toward $110K–$109K and the pivotal $107K “line in the sand.” Lose $107K with acceptance and the door opens to a deeper correction.

Key Levels and Triggers

• Bull trigger: 4H close above $113.4K + retest hold → targets $115.8K, then $117K–$118K.
• Bear trigger: Sharp rejection at $113.4K with lower highs → pullback to $111K, $109K, then $107K.
• Range pivot: Persistence below the 4H 200MA/EMA favors chop between $109.5K–$113.4K.
• Invalidation: For longs, a 4H close back inside $113.4K after breakout; for shorts, a 4H close/acceptance above $113.4K.
• Momentum tells: Track 4H RSI trendline breaks, funding/OI spikes, and expanding 4H volume on the breakout leg.

How to Trade It (Example Playbooks)

• Breakout-retest long: Wait for 4H close above $113.4K; enter on retest that holds with rising volume. Invalidate below the retest low. First take-profit $115.8K, leave a runner for $117K–$118K.
• Failed-break short: If price wicks above $113.4K and snaps back below the 4H 200EMA, fade the failure. Invalidate above the wick high. Targets: $111K, then $109K.
• Support-reclaim long: If price flushes to $107K and prints a higher low reclaim with strong bounce, consider a mean-reversion long back to $110K–$112K. Invalidate on acceptance below $107K.

Risk Factors to Respect

• MA whipsaws: The 4H 200MA/EMA often triggers false breaks—wait for confirmation, not impulse.
• Liquidity hunts: Expect stop sweeps around $113.4K and $107K; size for volatility.
• Macro flow: ETF net flows, DXY, and rates can abruptly shift trend conviction—monitor into the New York session.
• Positioning: If funding and OI ramp on a slow grind up, risk of squeeze-and-dump increases.

Bottom Line

This is a classic trend flip test: reclaim the 4H 200MA/EMA and $113.4K to unlock $115.8K+, or fail and rotate back to $111K–$109K with $107K as the critical defense. Trade the confirmation, define invalidation, and let the market choose the path.

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