Bitcoin sprinted into the weekly close, challenging the $112,000 ceiling as markets priced a near-certain Fed cut. With four straight green daily candles and signs of steady TWAP accumulation, the question for the next 72 hours is simple: will a clean reclaim of $113,000 unlock the next leg higher—or was this just weekend volatility bait?

What just happened

After a range-bound weekend, bulls pressed price through $112,000 on improving US inflation prints. Intraday bids are defending higher, while traders eye a “clean break and close” to confirm continuation. Near-term upside checkpoints remain $118,000 and $123,000, with many longs anchored above ~$108,200.

Why this matters to traders

FedWatch odds of a 25 bps cut on Oct. 29 sit above 98%, and global central-bank easing is broadening—conditions that can support risk assets. On-chain, the short-term holder cost basis near $113,000 is a key pivot; sustained acceptance above it tends to flip supply into support and opens the door to the $130k–$144k band. But weekly close volatility and event risk can produce sharp fakeouts.

Key levels and scenarios

• Momentum continuation: 4H/12H close and hold above $113,000 turns resistance to support; upside magnets at $118,000 then $123,000; extension possible toward $130k–$144k if acceptance holds.
• Range fade: Failure to hold $112,000 post-close invites a return to range; loss of ~$108,200 would invalidate the immediate long bias.
• Event volatility: Expect whipsaw and liquidity hunts into/after the Oct. 29 FOMC; the first move often reverses.

Actionable playbook (not financial advice)

• Wait for confirmation: require a 4H close and retest above $113,000 before adding risk.
• Define risk: set invalidation just below the reclaim level ($112,000 or your retest wick) and size accordingly.
• Stagger exits: scale out near $118,000 and $123,000; trail remainder in case of a $130k–$144k extension.
• Hedge the event: reduce leverage or hedge into FOMC; re-engage after the second impulse.
• Watch the tape: persistent bid/TWAP footprints and shallow pullbacks favor continuation; aggressive offers and failed retests flag a trap.

Risks to respect

• Weekend/weekly close liquidity can exaggerate moves and reverse quickly.
• Macro headlines can flip correlations and risk appetite in minutes.
• Overcrowded longs raise liquidation risk on shallow dips.

Bottom line

Bitcoin is knocking on a pivotal band. Acceptance above $113,000 tilts probability toward $118k/$123k and potentially $130k–$144k; failure pulls $112k and $108.2k back into focus. Plan the trade, define invalidation, and let the event come to you.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.