Bitcoin sellers are stepping up, profits are thinning, and long-term holders are loosening their grip—yet price is holding near $110,000. Is this the calm before a larger move, or proof of a resilient bid soaking up supply? Here’s what the tape and the chain are signaling—and how to position smartly.

What’s happening on-chain

Swissblock reports its Risk-Off Signal ticked higher through the week, confirming increased selling pressure without any hint of capitulation. Realized profit/loss flipped negative into late September and early October as price slipped from ~$120,000 toward ~$100,000, then moderated as volatility cooled.

Glassnode shows a notable shift in holder behavior: roughly 62,000 BTC moved out of long-term inactive wallets since mid-October. After rising from ~14.12M to ~14.38M BTC between late July and early October, illiquid supply has started to ease—meaning more coins are now available to trade. Despite that, Bitcoin is steady around $110,000, suggesting the market is cautious, not fearful.

Why this matters now

When illiquid supply falls, price trends require stronger new demand to advance. Combined with falling realized profits, the market is signaling risk management mode: participants are trimming gains into strength rather than chasing. This usually precedes one of two outcomes: - A resilient grind higher if demand absorbs the added supply. - A range breakdown if macro data or liquidity shocks hit a softer tape.

With key inflation prints ahead, the next catalyst can tilt the balance.

Key levels and flows to watch

- Price context: $100,000–$120,000 has contained recent swings; spot is hovering near $110,000. - On-chain: Watch Net Realized Profit/Loss turning sustainably positive and whether illiquid supply re-accelerates. - Microstructure: Monitor exchange netflows (inflows = supply pressure), funding rates, and open interest for signs of crowded positioning.

Actionable trading framework (next 7 days)

• Accumulation on stability: If price holds $108,000–$111,000 with flat-to-negative exchange netflows and NRP/L improves, consider scaling into spot or light leverage with tight risk, targeting $114,500–$116,500.
• Breakout confirmation: Reclaim and hold above $116,500 on rising spot volume and decreasing exchange balances; add on successful retests, eyeing $119,800–$121,500. Invalidate on a daily close back below $114,500.
• Fade weak bounces: If exchange inflows spike and funding turns sharply positive while price stalls under $114,500, consider tactical shorts toward $106,500–$104,000, with stops above the failed breakout level.
• Event risk hedging: Into inflation data, reduce leverage, widen stops, or hedge with options (put spreads) to protect against a volatility expansion.

Risk factors and invalidation

- A continued decline in illiquid supply without evidence of fresh demand raises drawdown risk. - A strong macro surprise (inflation or growth) can flip risk appetite abruptly. - Invalidation for bullish setups: daily close below $106,500 on rising exchange balances and negative NRP/L momentum.

Bottom line

The market is cautious but not capitulating: selling pressure is present, profits are thinner, and more supply is tradable—yet price is stable. That mix argues for disciplined, data-driven positioning: look for demand signals to confirm upside, and be ready to hedge or fade if supply overwhelms into macro catalysts.

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