Bitcoin keeps bouncing off demand near $107K—but every rally stalls under $110K. That tug-of-war is telling you exactly where risk and opportunity live right now. If you’re asking whether this is a buyable dip or a distribution trap, the answer sits around the $110K–$113K supply zone and the short-term moving averages that continue to reject price.

What’s Happening Now

Bulls defended $107K intraday, yet sellers quickly capped rebounds below $110K. A noted desk short from $117K remains in profit as the correction extends. Price still trades beneath the 20-day EMA (~$110,195) and the 50-day SMA (~$115,892)—a weak posture where rallies tend to be sold.

Why This Matters to Traders

Below key MAs, the path of least resistance remains down until proven otherwise. The prior demand at $111K–$113K has flipped to resistance, making it a logical supply pocket for mean-reversion shorts. Meanwhile, the tape shows red volume dominating recent sessions—evidence that sellers still have the initiative despite active dip-buying.

Key Levels and Confirmation

- Support: $107K (first line), $105K (major pivot from prior consolidation) - Resistance: $110K–$113K (supply), then $115.9K (50-day SMA) - Momentum trigger: Daily close back above the 20-day EMA (~$110.2K) that holds as support could shift bias toward a squeeze into $113K–$116K. - Participation: ~$34.46B 24h volume signals strong engagement—expect velocity around breaks and rejections.

Actionable Trade Setups

• Range-fade short: Look for rejection wicks or bearish structure in $110K–$113K. A clean daily close above the 20-day EMA is a warning; strength through $113K invalidates the fade.
• Countertrend long: Only consider into $107K–$105K if buyers show absorption (higher lows on intraday, declining sell volume). Lose $105K with momentum, and the setup is invalid.
• Breakout chase: If price closes above the 20-day EMA and retests it as support, a momentum leg toward the 50-day SMA (~$115.9K) opens up. No retest/hold = avoid chasing.

Risk Controls That Matter

• Stop placement: Keep stops beyond structure, not arbitrary dollars—e.g., above rejection highs in the supply zone or below failed support wicks near $105K.
• Position sizing: Volatility around $110K is elevated—size down to avoid getting chopped by intraday spikes.
• Confirmation > prediction: Let the 20-day EMA and the reaction at $110K–$113K decide your bias; don’t front-run a trend shift.

Bottom Line

As long as Bitcoin sits below the 20-day EMA and gets rejected in $110K–$113K, the correction playbook dominates. Bounces into supply are for fades; structure only flips if buyers reclaim and hold the $110K handle on a daily closing basis. Eyes on $105K as the battleground that could trigger the next decisive move.

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