A cooler-than-expected CPI lit a fire under risk assets and sent U.S. stocks to fresh highs, yet Bitcoin only briefly pierced $112,000 before sellers knocked it back. That divergence is the tell: macro is turning supportive, but crypto liquidity and key technicals still gate the next trend. Here’s how to navigate the whipsaw into the FOMC decision.

What just happened

The latest U.S. inflation print showed both headline and core slipping by 0.1%, hovering near ~3%, per the BLS. Markets quickly priced higher odds of a 25 bps cut at the October FOMC (CME FedWatch), boosting equities. Bitcoin surged, tagged $112,000, then retraced as order books showed a thin bid side on perps—an “air pocket” that can accelerate downside when momentum flips.

Why it matters to traders

Macro tailwinds—cooling inflation and looser financial conditions—are constructive for risk, but crypto’s microstructure still dominates short-term outcomes. The path forward hinges on whether BTC can reclaim and hold key EMAs to convert relief into trend. Until then, expect two-way volatility with liquidity hunts around obvious levels.

Key levels and liquidity map

• Resistance: $112,000 initial cap. A daily close above with rising spot volume strengthens bull continuation odds.
• Support/liquidation magnet: ~$110,000 showed clustered bids and liquidation interest (per derivatives data). First bounce zone, but fragile if perps dominate.
• Moving averages: Reclaiming the 21-day and 55-day EMA is pivotal for momentum; the 200-day EMA remains the must-hold trend line. A clean retest/hold of 21/55 turns dips into buys; loss of the 200-day invites deeper mean reversion.
• Order book texture: Thin perps bids increase gap risk. Spot-led breakouts are higher quality than perp-driven wicks.

Actionable trade plan (framework)

• Define the pivot: Treat the 21/55 EMA band as the intrend toggle. Above and holding = look for pullback longs; below and rejecting = fade bounces with tight risk.
• Confirm with spot: Favor signals where spot volume leads and funding normalizes. Avoid chasing perp-only squeezes.
• Use invalidations: For longs, invalidate on a decisive close back below the 200-day EMA or loss of $110K with rising open interest and negative delta. For shorts, invalidate on daily acceptance above $112K and the 55 EMA.
• Stagger entries: Scale at liquidity pockets (pre-identified wicks, prior day’s high/low, VWAP deviations). Keep position size modest ahead of FOMC.
• Event risk hedge: Into the rate decision, reduce gross exposure or hedge (e.g., short-dated options) due to gap risk from headline surprises.

Risks to monitor this week

• FOMC communication: A dovish cut with cautious guidance can still pressure BTC if “buy the rumor, sell the news” plays out.
• Liquidity air pockets: Thin bids on perps make downside accelerations more likely during fast moves.
• False breaks: Expect stop runs around $110K–$112K; wait for acceptance (close + follow-through) rather than first touch.

The bottom line

Macro relief is real, but Bitcoin must reclaim and hold the 21/55-day EMAs while defending the 200-day EMA to convert spikes into a sustainable leg higher. Until then, treat $110K–$112K as a battle zone: trade the acceptance, not the wick.

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