Bitcoin is coiling where it hurts: just under the 200‑day EMA (~$109.1K) with momentum drained and volatility compressed. A clean descending wedge (114K → 106K) now cages price while the market quietly sets up for a move that could run harder and further than most expect. With RSI ~43, a bearish MACD crossover, and HV10 ≈ 26 telegraphing a volatility squeeze, the next directional push could define the week for BTC—and every trader caught flat‑footed.

What the chart is saying

BTC failed to reclaim the 20‑day EMA and slipped to the $107K area after closing near $108,362. The 4‑hour structure shows lower highs and weak follow‑through above $110K, reinforcing seller control on rallies. Key levels are crystal clear: supports at $106.7K → $105.3K → $102.9K and resistances at $109.9K → $111.8K → $114K.

Why this setup matters now

Muted volatility plus a tightening wedge often precedes an expansion move. With macro structure still technically bullish but near‑term fragile, the next break can deliver outsized reward if you’re positioned with clear invalidations—and painful losses if you’re not.

Actionable trade plans

• Breakout long: Wait for a daily close back above $109.9K to signal momentum re‑entry. First targets: $111–112K (EMA20 zone), then $114K. Invalidation: loss of $109K/200‑day EMA on closing basis.
• Breakdown short: A decisive loss of $106.7K opens $105K and potentially $102–103K. Invalidation: swift reclaim of $106.7K with rising volume.
• Range fade (advanced): While HV10 ≈ 26 remains low, fading extremes toward $106–107K support and $111–114K resistance can work—use tight stops and smaller size.
• Options volatility play: Low realized vol favors pre‑positioning with straddles/strangles into the break; manage theta by scaling after confirmation.

Risk controls to respect

Position sizing should reflect the binary nature of the setup. Demand volume confirmation on the break; ignore wicks without participation. Keep stops outside the wedge boundaries to avoid chop, and reduce leverage until the trend resolves.

Signals that flip the script

Watch for the 4h → daily alignment: RSI reclaiming 50, a bullish MACD cross, and sustained trade back above $109.9K. Together, they argue for a push into $111–114K. Conversely, heavy sell volume sub‑$106.7K likely accelerates to $105K and tests $102–103K liquidity.

The one takeaway

In a compressed wedge with fading momentum, the highest‑probability edge is to let price choose: trade the daily close above $109.9K or the break below $106.7K, then ride the expansion with predefined invalidation and staged profit‑taking.

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