Traders are circling a critical line in the sand as Bitcoin wrestles with intense sell pressure while **bid support** consolidates near **$105,000**. Liquidity is thickening at this level, volume has spiked, and institutions are quietly repositioning—leaving the market primed for a sharp move that could define the next leg of the cycle. The question isn’t whether something gives—it’s which side of **$105K** breaks first.

What’s Happening Now

BTC’s tape shows a buildup of **bids around $105,000** alongside a **17% volume surge** in that zone, confirming it as a battleground. At the same time, large players are active: **BlackRock’s IBIT** drew about **$3.77B** in June net inflows, and **Metaplanet Inc.** added **463 BTC** at an average **$115,895**—evidence of **strategic accumulation** above support even as spot pressure rises.

Why It Matters To Traders

This is a classic tension between **structural accumulation** and **short-term distribution**. Exchange **BTC reserves at multi-year lows** suggest long-term conviction, yet immediate order book dynamics can still force a **support test**. If **$105K** holds, the path of least resistance is a reflexive bounce; if it snaps, liquidity below can accelerate a downside **flush** before stronger hands reload.

Institutional Flows: Double-Edged Signal

Strong ETF inflows (over **$4.7B** into spot BTC ETFs in June) historically cushion deeper drawdowns, but they can’t negate near-term technical breaks. Treat **daily ETF net flows** as a **risk barometer**: sustained **outflows** often align with weaker bounces and failed retests; persistent **inflows** can validate higher lows.

Seasonality And Pattern Risk

August has been historically **bearish** for BTC with an average **-11.4%** monthly move, often pushing price into **oversold** zones before sharp reversals. Technically, a **rising wedge** breakdown increases the odds of a **drive toward $105K**; a decisive break below it can extend to lower liquidity pockets before mean reversion kicks in.

Actionable Trading Plan

• Scenario A – Hold $105K: Look for higher low confirmation on 4H with declining sell volume and a reclaim of intraday VWAP. Potential bounce targets: **$110K–$115K**. Tight stops below local swing low.
• Scenario B – Break $105K: Don’t knife-catch. Wait for a stop-run sweep and quick reclaim of $105K or enter on a clean **retest from below** that flips to resistance. Momentum shorts target nearby liquidity; trail with structure, not PnL.
• Scenario C – Squeeze above $115K: Watch for acceptance above **$115,895** (Metaplanet’s average) to signal absorption. If sustained with strong ETF inflows, target prior range highs; if rejected, fade back into the range.
• ETH read-through: Rapid **exchange outflows** hint at possible strength on rebounds. Pair trades (long ETH/short BTC) only if ETH shows relative strength on pullbacks.

Risk Management And Invalidations

• Invalidation for longs: 4H close below **$105K** with rising sell volume and negative ETF 3-day net flows.
• Invalidation for shorts: Strong reclaim and hold above **$115K** with breadth improvement and funding normalizing from extremes.
• Execution: Use staggered limit orders near key levels, keep risk per trade **≤1%**, and consider **puts/covered calls** to hedge event risk.

The Bottom Line

Price is coiling around **$105K** with institutions accumulating and seasonality working against bulls. Let the level confirm: trade the reaction, not the prediction. Inflows and order book shifts will tell you when conviction returns.

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