Markets just flipped the script: after unexpectedly lower inflation was confirmed, Bitcoin ripped back above the pivotal $110,500 level and risk appetite returned across majors and select alt sectors. At the same time, Aster stunned traders with an aggressive token buyback plan, pledging 70–80% of its Season 3 fees to market purchases—fuel for a squeeze in circulating supply. With the Fed now widely seen as primed to cut rates next week, this is the kind of macro+tokenomics setup that can accelerate moves—both up and down—fast.

What just happened

The latest inflation print confirmed last month’s PCE cool-down, pushing markets to price a near-certain Fed rate cut. Bitcoin reclaimed $110,500, a level traders are treating as a risk-on pivot.

Aster, a Binance-backed competitor to Hyperliquid, announced it is targeting 70–80% of Season 3 fee revenue for ASTR buybacks, with allocations dependent on market conditions. The team will finalize details after S3 ends. The program implies millions of dollars of tokens could be purchased and removed from exchanges, supporting price during favorable liquidity.

Why this matters to traders

- Macro tailwinds: Lower inflation and easier policy typically loosen financial conditions, lift liquidity, and favor momentum in crypto. - Supply dynamics: Systematic buybacks reduce float, often improving order book resiliency and supporting price floors. - Ecosystem beta: Positive headlines around Binance/BNB and BSC activity can spill over to adjacent projects like Aster when BTC holds trend.

Key levels and scenarios

• BTC: Holding above $110,500 keeps momentum constructive. Sustained closes above this area favor trend continuation; failure to hold turns it into resistance and signals a potential momentum fade.
• Aster: Price defended near $0.94–$1.00. A daily close above $1.13 would strengthen a reversal case. Lose $1.00 and the path of least resistance shifts to the downside until buyback flows reappear.
• Events: Fed rate decision next week and US–China sanction headlines are volatility catalysts—expect spreads and slippage to widen around announcements.

Actionable playbook (not financial advice)

• Trade around levels, not headlines: For BTC, wait for 4H/daily confirmation above $110,500 before adding risk; use tight invalidation if price slips back below.
• Position sizing: Scale entries to survive volatility spikes into the FOMC; expand size only on confirmed breakouts with rising spot + futures volume.
• Watch liquidity data: Track funding rates, OI, and spot/futures basis. Rising price with flat-to-declining funding suggests healthier advance than overheated long build-up.
• Aster-specific: Monitor official S3 buyback updates. Because allocations are conditional, treat buybacks as supportive but not guaranteed. Consider waiting for a daily close above $1.13 to validate momentum rather than chasing wicks.
• Risk controls: Use limit orders near key levels, predefine stops, and avoid overexposure into event risk windows.

Risks to watch

• Policy surprise: Any deviation from a widely expected cut could spark a sharp risk-off reversal.
• Program discretion: Aster’s buyback is market-dependent; smaller allocations or delays may underwhelm expectations.
• Liquidity pockets: Thin books on smaller caps can amplify slippage; size conservatively and stagger orders.

Bottom line

Macro momentum plus supply-tightening narratives can fuel outsized moves—but they cut both ways. Let price confirm at key levels, align risk with volatility, and respect that buyback timelines are dynamic. The coming week’s decisions could define the next leg.

If you don't want to miss any crypto news, follow my account on X.