Bitcoin just clawed back above $110,000—and the next hours may decide whether this bounce is just noise or the start of the next leg. With RSI ~46, a flattening MACD, and a thick on-chain wall near $112,340, the tape is setting up a classic decision point that skilled traders exploit: squeeze through resistance for momentum, or fail and fade back into range.

What’s happening now

BTC trades around $110,345 (+~1% 24h), reclaiming a multi-session dip as buyers defended the $108,000 zone. Importantly, price still sits above the 50-day moving average (MA50)—a line that has repeatedly acted as a launchpad in this cycle. Market cap is back near $2.19T, with 24h volume > $66B, signaling participants are engaged even as momentum resets.

Why $112,340 matters

On-chain UTXO Realized Price Distribution flags $112,340 as a heavy supply cluster—an area where many coins last moved. Clearing it decisively often forces sidelined capital and late shorts to react, creating fuel toward $115,000–$118,000. Failure there increases the odds of profit-taking and a slide back to $108,000 or even $106,000.

Key levels and triggers

• Support: $110,000 (intraday pivot), $108,000 (range floor), $106,000 (deeper test)
• Resistance: $112,340 (on-chain wall), $115,000–$118,000 (next supply)
• Signals: RSI holding >45 with rising slope; MACD zero-line crossover; price basing above MA50

Actionable game plan

• Breakout-retest setup: Wait for a 4H close above $112,340 with expanding volume; look for a clean retest that holds as support. Invalidation: sustained move back below ~$112K.
• Range strategy: If rejection at $112,340, fade into strength with tight stops, target the mid ($110K) and lower bound ($108K). Invalidation: strong candle reclaiming and holding above $112,340.
• Risk controls: Keep risk per idea modest (e.g., 0.5–1% of equity), predefine exits, avoid chasing first wick through resistance.
• Data to watch: ETF net flows, funding and open interest shifts, order book liquidity around $112K–$113K, breadth across large caps.

Macro watch: gold’s lead and liquidity

A recent desk view suggests gold’s rally leads BTC by ~70 days. If that rhythm persists, a BTC catch-up into year-end is plausible—especially if global liquidity improves, the USD softens, or policy expectations tilt dovish. Keep an eye on Fed commentary, real yields, and cross-asset risk appetite.

Risks to respect

• Fakeout risk: A wick above $112,340 that quickly fails.
• Flow shocks: Sudden ETF outflows or large miner/whale distribution.
• Macro headlines: Policy surprises, geopolitics, or growth shocks spiking volatility.
• Timing traps: Weekly close dynamics and month-end rotations can distort signals.

Bottom line

BTC’s reclaim of $110K and hold above the MA50 keep the broader uptrend constructive, but the battle is at $112,340. Patience around this level is key: let price confirm strength with volume—or let it reject and trade the range with disciplined risk.

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