Bitcoin just teased a breakout, tapping $111,000 before stalling under the $112,500 wall. With weekend liquidity thin and volatility compressed, the next decisive close could set the tone for September. Here’s what matters: BTC is printing a higher low above $110,000, ETH is wrestling with renewed ETF outflows, and PENDLE remains resilient as DeFi interest returns—with critical levels now in play.

What’s Happening

Bitcoin reclaimed momentum with a higher low and held the $110,000 support. Bulls are eyeing a clean break above $112,000–$112,500 to confirm trend continuation.

Ethereum is contending with >$400M in net ETF outflows. Price is attempting to hold above $4,300, while ETHBTC slipped below 0.039, signaling relative weakness versus BTC.

PENDLE trades near $4.66 and sits in the top 100. Post-FTX, DeFi narratives are regaining attention, but performance will likely track risk appetite and rotation flows from majors.

Why This Matters to Traders

- For BTC, a higher low into resistance often precedes expansion. Acceptance above $112K could ignite momentum. - For ETH, sustained ETF outflows can suppress bids and volatility-adjusted upside, especially while ETHBTC underperforms. - For alts like PENDLE, majors’ direction and ETF headlines will dictate liquidity. Strength in BTC plus ETH softness can compress alt upside until rotation turns.

Key Levels and Triggers

• BTC: Holding $110,000 keeps bulls in control. A daily close above $112,000–$112,500 opens continuation potential; repeated rejections there favor range behavior.
• ETH: Maintain $4,300 to avoid momentum decay. Continued ETF outflows alongside ETHBTC < 0.039 argues for patience on aggressive longs.
• PENDLE: Respect the beta. Momentum is constructive, but liquidity can vanish quickly on broader risk-off—avoid chasing vertical moves.

Actionable Playbook (Educational)

• BTC breakout-retest: Consider waiting for a confirmed close above $112K and a constructive retest for continuation. Invalidation is a swift return below the breakout level on rising sell volume.
• ETH risk control: If holding spot, monitor daily closes relative to $4,300. Protective strategies (e.g., put spreads) can cap downside while ETF flows remain negative.
• Rotation watch: Track ETHBTC. A sustained reclaim of 0.039 would signal improving ETH relative strength and a friendlier backdrop for selective alts.
• Position sizing: Keep sizes modest into weekend/low-volatility conditions. Expand only on confirmed level shifts with improving breadth.

Risk Dashboard to Monitor

• ETF flows: Net inflows/outflows for BTC and ETH—trend and magnitude.
• Market structure: BTC reaction at $112K–$112.5K; failure there implies range continuation.
• ETHBTC: A further slide below 0.039 weakens the case for near-term ETH leadership.
• Liquidity/volatility: Weekend books magnify moves—expect slippage and whipsaws.

Bottom Line

The path of least resistance favors BTC if it clears $112K with conviction. ETH needs ETF pressure to ease and $4,300 to hold for momentum to rebuild. PENDLE benefits from improving DeFi sentiment but remains tethered to broader risk. Let the levels—and the flows—do the talking.

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