Bitcoin is coiled like a spring. After slipping from $112K to near $108K, price is compressing as Washington’s policy fight meets a fourth week of a U.S. government shutdown and cooler risk appetite across equities. With Treasury yields easing to 3.95%, the macro tone is cautious—not panicked—and the chart’s Bollinger squeeze says volatility is about to return. The question for traders isn’t if a move is coming—it’s which trigger hits first.

What’s Happening Right Now

Bitcoin is chopping between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, hovering around $108.6K, with Heikin Ashi candles signaling indecision. Near-term resistance is clustered at $111K–$112K (20‑day MA), while support sits at $105K–$106K. The 50‑day SMA around $114K caps the broader down-bias. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks faded on China headlines and weak earnings, and policy jitters in D.C. are keeping crypto allocations cautious.

Why This Matters to Traders

Policy clarity could unlock fresh capital; policy escalation—especially tighter DeFi oversight—could sap speculative flows. Layer on the shutdown’s liquidity drag and upcoming CPI, and you have a macro-regulatory cocktail that can amplify the pending technical breakout. In compressed regimes like this, the first sustained break often runs further than expected.

Key Levels and Triggers

• Bull trigger: Daily close above $112K flips momentum, opening $115K–$118K; a push through the 50‑day (~$114K) strengthens the case.
• Bear trigger: Clean break below $105K exposes $101K, then the psychological $95K.
• Pivot to watch: $107K. Holding above keeps the squeeze constructive; lose it and volatility likely expands lower.
• Indicators: Bollinger Band width expansion and rising ATR = confirmation that the move is underway.

Actionable Game Plan

• Pre-plan both scenarios: Define entries on a confirmed daily close beyond $112K or below $105K, not intraday wicks.
• Use invalidation: For upside breakouts, consider stops back inside the band/20‑DMA; for breakdowns, stops back above $105K.
• Position sizing: Trade smaller than usual in a squeeze; increase size only after confirmation and momentum follow‑through.
• Volatility plays: If you have options access, a short‑dated, delta‑neutral structure (e.g., a straddle) can monetize the move direction‑agnostically—manage theta and event risk.
• Event watchlist: Shutdown headlines, Senate chatter on DeFi, Fed tone, and next week’s CPI. Do not carry oversized risk through these prints.

Risk Management You Can’t Ignore

• Liquidity gaps: Expect slippage on breaks, especially during off-hours and weekend sessions.
• Exchange risk: Diversify venue exposure, use conditional orders, and verify margin settings before volatility expands.
• Don’t chase wicks: Let retests validate breaks; failed breakouts in squeezes reverse fast.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s range is tight, the macro and policy calendar is hot, and the next decisive leg likely arrives within days, not weeks. Be reactive, not predictive: let $112K or $105K choose the path, trade the confirmation, and keep risk small until trend expansion is proven.

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