Markets are telling a different story than your fear: while headlines warn of macro headwinds, Bitcoin’s underlying bid is quietly strengthening as institutions add exposure and U.S. regulators signal continuity. The Bitcoin Policy Institute urges traders to ignore the “ghosts of fiat,” and the tape backs it up—BlackRock reportedly posted $117M ETF inflows after a high‑profile endorsement, even as BTC wrestles with a thick $96K–$107K resistance band and shifting Fed expectations.

What just happened

BlackRock’s spot ETF saw notable net inflows, reinforcing the idea that ETFs are now a persistent demand sink. The Bitcoin Policy Institute’s founders, David Zell and Matthew Pines, emphasized Bitcoin’s resilience amid macro volatility. On policy, U.S. regulators indicated no new restrictions on crypto custody, while SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce suggested it’s time to update who can custody assets—potentially opening the door for more technologically adept firms.

Why this matters to traders

- Flows drive trend: Sustained ETF creations can support spot bids and dampen downside wicks during macro scares. - Defined battlefield: The article cites BTC testing $96K–$107K. Expect liquidity games, stop sweeps, and fast reversals around these levels. - Policy reduces headline risk: A steady custody stance and potential modernization lower tail-risk of abrupt access shocks. - Macro still rules: Fed speak and yields can expand or crush risk appetite intraday—be ready for regime flips.

Actionable setup: Trade the range, not the noise

• Map the zone: Mark $96K (range base), $100K (psych pivot), and $107K (range top/liquidity). Build scenarios for reclaim vs. rejection at each.
• Trigger discipline: Use alerts and wait for a close and hold above/below your trigger level; avoid chasing first wick.
• Bracket orders: Fade edges with tight invalidation; flip bias on clean break-and-retest. Keep position size small near extremes.
• Confirm with data: Monitor ETF net flows, funding, open interest, and spot-CVD. Favor longs when ETF inflows + positive spot CVD align; step back if OI spikes without spot support.
• Protect the downside: Use hard stops; predefine max daily loss. If volatility expands, reduce size and widen stops proportionally.

Regulatory angle: Custody clarity as a slow-burn catalyst

If custody rules broaden to include more tech-native custodians, expect improved access, tighter spreads, and deeper liquidity over time. That structural tailwind would favor high-quality exchanges, prime brokers, and compliant custodians, and could compress risk premia across the crypto complex.

Key catalysts to watch

• Fed path: FOMC commentary, CPI/PCE, and labor data impacting yields and DXY.
• ETF tape: Daily creations/redemptions across U.S. spot BTC ETFs; watch for streaks of inflows or a sharp reversal.
• Liquidity pockets: Heatmaps around $96K / $100K / $107K for spoofing, absorption, and breakout volume.
• Regulatory signals: SEC/Commissioner remarks on custody and RIA rules that could shift institutional participation.

Longer-term positioning

If you’re not a short-term trader, consider a rules-based DCA strategy while using the $96K–$107K band for periodic rebalancing. Maintain a separate “core” allocation and a smaller “tactical” sleeve to exploit range opportunities without jeopardizing long-term exposure.

Bottom line

Ignore the “fiat ghosts”—focus on flows, levels, and rules. Institutional demand and steady policy tone support the bull case, but the market will make you earn every breakout. Trade the range with discipline, respect macro, and let data—not fear—set your bias.

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