Six billion dollars in BTC and ETH options just rolled off the board—and the market’s first instinct was **caution**. As hedges reset and dealer books rebalance, the next 24–72 hours often set the tone: will post-expiry flows dampen volatility or unlock a fresh **trend**? With whales leaning into downside protection via deep OTM BTC $100K puts and open interest elevated into the event, the clues are in the options tape.

What Changed at Expiry

Over $6B in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired on October 24, 2025. Key venues like Deribit entered the window with record open interest near $50B, magnifying hedging flows as positions were closed, rolled, or rebalanced. Large traders adjusted exposure and added protection, signaling respect for potential volatility spikes even as the event passed.

Why It Matters to Traders

Post-expiry, dealer gamma and delta exposures reset. That can flip intraday liquidity dynamics: when dealers are short gamma, they may chase price, amplifying moves; when long gamma, they may fade moves, dampening swings. With put demand elevated, downside skew remains a critical tell for near-term direction and the market’s appetite for risk.

Actionable Signals to Track

• Skew & Term Structure: Rising put skew and a steeper front-end often precede risk-off moves; flattening skew can hint at stabilization.
• Dealer Gamma Zones: Watch public gamma dashboards for flip levels; a move through these zones can increase intraday velocity.
• Max Pain vs. Spot: Persistent divergence after expiry can unleash directional follow-through as hedges unwind.
• Funding & Basis: Positive funding rising into falling OI can flag squeeze risk; negative funding with building OI can confirm risk-off.
• Block Flows & Rolls: Track large put rolls and protective collars on Deribit/CME for whale intent.
• Liquidity Pockets: Prior weekly high/low and major strikes (e.g., $100K on BTC) often act as magnets or rejection zones.

Trade Setups to Consider

• IV Crush Fade: If implied volatility dips post-expiry but realized stays high, consider defined-risk long gamma (short-dated straddles/strangles) with strict sizing.
• Defined Downside: When put skew is bid, express bearish views via put spreads instead of naked puts to control tail risk.
• Spot Discipline: Trade break-and-retest of key levels with confirmation (volume/OBV). Use bracket orders and pre-set invalidation to avoid chop.
• Hedge Smart: Pair spot exposure with short-dated protective puts into event-heavy sessions; roll rather than chase after large moves.

Key Risks

• Whipsaws: Gamma flips can trigger false breakouts in thin liquidity.
• Macro Landmines: Unexpected policy headlines or liquidity shocks can overwhelm options signals.
• Positioning Traps: Crowded hedges unwind abruptly, creating squeezes in both directions.

Bottom Line

The expiry removed a major overhang but left a clear message: institutions are still paying for protection. Let options signals guide your bias, trade with defined risk, and stay flexible—post-expiry moves often reward the patient, not the early.

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