Bitcoin is snapping between bids and offers as the market counts down to the Federal Reserve’s next move. With BTC briefly slicing below $115,000 before bouncing, traders face a rare confluence: the first potential US rate cut of the year (magnitude uncertain), a newly confirmed pro‑crypto Fed voice in Stephen Miran, and a surge of institutional demand as US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly $2.2B last week. This mix can ignite a trend—or trap impatient entries. Here’s what matters now and how to navigate it.

What’s Moving Bitcoin Right Now

BTC’s immediate driver is the Fed’s decision and guidance. A cut is widely expected, but whether it’s 25 bps or a surprise 50 bps matters less than the path implied by the dot plot and Powell’s tone. A dovish path (more cuts signaled) supports risk; a hawkish path (fewer/farther cuts) tightens financial conditions and pressures crypto beta. Meanwhile, the confirmation of Stephen Miran, openly constructive on digital assets, could slowly improve the regulatory conversation—an incremental tailwind rather than an instant catalyst.

The Range That Matters

Analysts are watching $110,000–$116,000 as the battlefield. Holds above the mid‑range keep the bullish structure alive; clean acceptance below turns eyes to lower liquidity pockets and potential stop cascades. Into a high‑volatility macro event, expect fakeouts at the edges. Let price accept beyond the range (multiple candles and volume) before sizing up.

• Key supports: $112,000–$113,000 (intraday), $110,000 (structural line in the sand).
• Key resistances: $116,000 (range top), $118,500–$120,000 (breakout confirmation zone).
• Invalidation: Two closes back inside the range after a breakout = trap risk, reduce exposure.

Institutional Flow Is Back

US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted roughly $2.2B net inflows last week—evidence that larger players are buying dips, not chasing spikes. In parallel, SC Ventures (Standard Chartered) is nearing a $250M raise focused on digital assets and weighing an Africa‑focused fund—signals of expanding capital allocation and geographic breadth. For traders, sustained inflows often bolster trend durability, while sudden outflows can mark local tops. Track daily ETF prints around the US cash open.

Actionable Playbook for the Week

• Scenario A – 25 bps cut + dovish guidance: Look for a close above $116,000 with volume, then consider breakout adds toward $118,500–$120,000. Keep a tight stop back inside $115,500.
• Scenario B – 25 bps cut + hawkish tone / no cut: Fade wicks into $116,000; prefer mean‑reversion sells with targets back to $112,000–$113,000. Hedge spot with short perps sized by funding.
• Scenario C – 50 bps cut surprise: Expect violent two‑way moves; prioritize post‑event confirmation. IV crush after the presser can favor short‑dated, small‑size premium selling—but only with strict risk controls.
• Risk management: Use bracket orders, pre‑define max loss per trade, and stagger entries. Consider protective puts or collars into the decision; unwind hedges on confirmed breakout/breakdown.
• Metrics to watch: Funding and OI spikes (crowded side vulnerability), BTC dominance (alt beta risk), ETF net flows (US open), liquidity at range edges (tape speed/absorption).

Risks You Can’t Ignore

Press‑conference whipsaws often reverse the initial post‑decision move. Range breakouts can fail if ETF flows flip negative. Thin liquidity in off‑hours can amplify stops. Regulatory headlines can hit tape without warning. Size positions so a single adverse candle doesn’t force liquidation.

Bottom Line

Respect the $110,000–$116,000 range, trade the confirmation not the first spike, and let ETF flows and Fed guidance be your compass. Strong plans beat strong opinions—especially on macro days.

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